XRP’s RSI at 37.47 is approaching the oversold zone while the MACD histogram gives a positive momentum signal; although the bearish short-term trend continues below EMA20, the indicators are showing signs of weakening.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
XRP is currently trading at the 1.35 dollar level and the overall trend direction continues downward. The daily range was between 1.27-1.37 dollars, while the 24-hour change remained limited to a 0.17% increase. Volume is at a moderate level of 2.53 billion dollars, but this volume does not support the decline and creates a sense of squeeze in momentum. Although the short-term trend is bearish, momentum oscillators are giving mixed signals. The RSI’s low level and the MACD’s positive histogram indicate that the trend’s strength is decreasing. The Supertrend indicator is in a bearish position and highlights the 1.61 dollar resistance. In the multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence analysis, 16 strong levels were detected on the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1D has 3 supports/3 resistances, 3D has 2/2, and 1W has a balance of 2 supports/5 resistances. This shows that the market is in an unbalanced consolidation and requires a cautious approach for momentum traders.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is currently at 37.47 and quite close to the oversold region below 30. Recently, while the price has been making new lows (down to 1.27 dollars), the RSI is forming higher lows; this can be interpreted as a classic bullish divergence. On the daily chart, as the price approaches the 1.3142 support level, this divergence in RSI indicates that selling momentum is exhausted and the ground is being prepared for a potential rebound. On the weekly timeframe, RSI is stabilizing around the 40 level, with no regular divergence but a hidden bullish divergence starting to form. Although the price remaining below EMA20 weakens the divergence, the decrease in volume supports this signal. For momentum traders, the RSI divergence is critical for seeking buy momentum on a close above the 40 level.
Overbought/Oversold Regions
RSI at 37.47 is hovering at the oversold threshold, a level that has historically triggered strong rebounds in XRP. In previous similar situations (e.g., the fall 2025 correction), when RSI dropped below 35, 20-30% recoveries were observed. The current position shows that selling pressure is decreasing and buyers are starting to accumulate. However, a rapid rise to the 50 level should not be expected; there is a resistant market. If RSI drops below 30, the risk of a deeper test increases, but the current divergence may limit this.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
MACD is in bullish status and the histogram is showing positive values, a contrarian signal within the downtrend. The crossover between the signal line and MACD line remains positive, and the histogram bars are tending to widen but have not yet peaked. On the daily chart, the histogram’s growth above the zero line confirms that downward momentum speed is being lost. On the 4-hour chart, histogram contraction is observed, indicating short-term consolidation and breakout potential. When confirmed by volume (2.53B volume does not support the decline), the MACD histogram is flashing a green light for a buy signal. If the histogram contracts at the 1.3948 resistance level, be cautious, but the current positive structure offers hope for a test toward 1.4698.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
XRP price is trading below EMA20 (1.43 dollars), confirming the short-term bearish trend. The ribbon between EMA10 and EMA20 is squeezed, indicating weak trend strength. If the price breaks above EMA20, an increase in momentum is expected with ribbon expansion. In the current position, the 1.3142 support is near EMA50 and supportive for a bounce.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
The price is in contact with the medium-term EMA50 (around 1.35), playing a dynamic support role. EMA200 forms a strong long-term base in the 1.20s. Ribbon dynamics show a bearish slope in the medium term, but long-term EMAs are giving a signal of upward curl. In trend strength measurement, the narrowing of the EMA ribbon is a warning for consolidation and potential trend change.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin is at the 66,368 dollar level and trading in a downtrend with a 24-hour 1.55% increase. BTC’s main supports are 64,320, 62,490, and 60,000 dollars; resistances are 65,786, 68,086, and 70,006. BTC Supertrend is in bearish position, posing risk for altcoins. XRP shows high correlation with BTC (around 0.85%); if BTC breaks below 64,320, pressure increases on XRP’s 1.1172 support. Conversely, a BTC close above 65,786 revives XRP momentum. Rising BTC dominance delays altcoin rally, so XRP Spot Analysis and XRP Futures Analysis should be followed. XRP’s relative strength against BTC stands out with divergence.
Momentum Outcome and Expectations
Momentum oscillators are mixed: RSI divergence and MACD positive histogram give bullish signals, while EMA position and Supertrend maintain bearish pressure. Volume decline does not confirm sells, increasing the likelihood of holding above 1.3142 support. Bullish target 1.9206 (low score), bearish 0.7636; short-term, 1.3948 resistance can be tested. MTF confluence offers a balanced structure. Momentum traders should wait for RSI 40+ and MACD histogram expansion. The market is volatile; levels should be closely monitored.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xrp-technical-analysis-february-28-2026-rsi-macd-momentum
