A full breakdown of the TSLA chart, key support and resistance levels, and what a stretched valuation call from a leading Tesla analyst means for the stock's next move

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at 311.21 dollars, up 2.36 dollars, or 0.76 percent, on the day. That modest daily gain sits inside a much rougher picture. Over the past month, shares are down 94.98 dollars, or 23.38 percent, one of the steepest 30 day declines the stock has posted in recent memory. Over the past year, TSLA is down 7.24 dollars, or 2.27 percent, meaning a stock that was showing a healthy annual gain only weeks ago has now round tripped into negative territory.

This is a technical picture that looks almost nothing like the bullish setup currently playing out in mega cap tech names like Microsoft. Where Microsoft stock recently reclaimed its 200 day moving average and flipped every technical indicator to Buy, Tesla stock is doing close to the opposite. The technical summary rating for TSLA currently reads Sell, driven by a Strong Sell reading across nearly every moving average tracked. Below, we walk through the price action, the moving averages, the oscillators, the pivot levels, and the fundamental valuation debate currently swirling around the stock so that traders and investors have a complete picture of where TSLA stands technically heading into August 2026.

As of the most recent close, Tesla stock is trading at 311.21 dollars per share. Here is how that breaks down across several timeframes, because the story changes dramatically depending on which window is examined.

Daily performance: Up 2.36 dollars, or 0.76 percent, at close.

Past 5 days: Down 1.97 dollars, or 0.63 percent, essentially flat but still net negative.

Past month: Down 94.98 dollars, or 23.38 percent, an extremely sharp decline for a mega cap stock in a 30 day window.

Past year: Down 7.24 dollars, or 2.27 percent, meaning the entire past year of price action has now netted out to essentially breakeven to slightly negative.

This combination, a small positive session sitting inside a severe monthly decline, is a classic pattern technical analysts watch closely following a sharp selloff. It can represent the first tentative signs of stabilization after a capitulation move, or it can be a brief pause before the decline resumes. The technical indicators explored in detail below help clarify which scenario is more likely.

Understanding the technical picture requires understanding the fundamental and sentiment driven pressures behind it. Several distinct threads have converged on Tesla stock in recent weeks.

Valuation concerns from a leading Tesla analyst: Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC, one of the most closely followed Tesla focused investors on financial social media, has been vocal in recent weeks about what he views as an unsustainable valuation. Black has pointed to a 2026 price to earnings ratio of roughly 205 times against projected earnings per share growth of 35 percent from 2026 through 2030, producing a PEG ratio of 6.0 times. He has also flagged that consensus 2027 adjusted earnings per share estimates have fallen roughly 17 percent year to date, a trend he argues explains why many institutional investors continue to avoid the stock despite Tesla's brand strength and technology advantages.

A specific fair value target: In one of his more widely circulated posts, Black pegged Tesla's fair value at 312 dollars per share, using an assumption of 7.75 dollars in 2030 earnings per share multiplied by a price to earnings ratio reflecting 35 percent long term earnings growth at a megacap average PEG ratio of 2.0 times. Notably, that 312 dollar fair value estimate sits almost exactly at TSLA's current trading price of 311.21 dollars, meaning the stock is now trading right around the level one of its most prominent analysts considers fair, rather than undervalued or still overextended.

A more bearish near term call: Just days before that fair value post, Black had gone further, stating he expected TSLA to fall below 300 dollars per share and SpaceX to break below 100 dollars per share in the coming weeks, citing forward fiscal 2026 price to earnings multiples in excess of 175 times for both Musk led companies as AI related valuations broadly came under pressure.

Second quarter earnings: Tesla reported second quarter 2026 earnings on July 22, with analysts modeling earnings per share of roughly 0.32 dollars heading into the print. The stock has been notably volatile in the sessions since, consistent with the sharp monthly decline visible on the chart.

SpaceX merger speculation: A separate thread of market chatter involved speculation that SpaceX could acquire Tesla, an idea Black publicly rejected, arguing that Elon Musk's voting control over SpaceX does not eliminate its board's fiduciary duty to avoid a heavily dilutive transaction. He estimated such a deal could dilute SpaceX shareholders by roughly 25 percent, and noted that while some analysts at firms including Jefferies and JPMorgan still see strategic logic in a combination, the math remains a serious obstacle.

Relative underperformance: So far in 2026, Tesla has been the second worst performer among the Magnificent Seven group of mega cap technology stocks, down approximately 13 percent for the year at one recent checkpoint, a notable divergence from the strength seen in several AI and cloud focused peers.

Taken together, this is a very different fundamental backdrop than the earnings driven breakout currently supporting Microsoft stock. Tesla's decline appears to be driven primarily by a valuation reset, as prominent analysts and investors push back on a price that had run well ahead of near term earnings growth, compounded by uncertainty around corporate structure speculation and a closely watched earnings report.

The one year chart tells a story of significant volatility that has ultimately gone nowhere on a net basis. Tesla stock spent the late summer and early fall of the past year climbing from the 300 dollar area up toward the 480 to 500 dollar range, a substantial rally of more than 60 percent from trough to peak. That peak proved difficult to sustain, and the stock spent the following months carving out a volatile, choppy pattern of lower highs, pulling back into the 380 to 400 dollar range before staging a partial recovery back above 450 dollars.

From that secondary peak, the decline has been steep and largely uninterrupted. The final stretch of the one year chart shows Tesla falling from the 400 dollar area down through 350 dollars and ultimately to the current 311.21 dollar level, with the very last candle on the chart showing an especially sharp single session drop. This is the visual signature of the 23.38 percent monthly decline described earlier translated into the broader annual context. A stock that gained more than 60 percent from its yearly low to its yearly high has now given back nearly all of that gain, landing almost exactly where it started twelve months ago.

This round trip pattern is technically significant. It suggests that whatever fundamental improvement or sentiment driven enthusiasm fueled the rally into the 480 to 500 dollar zone has been substantially unwound, and the market is now effectively repricing Tesla back toward a valuation level closer to where it traded a year ago, adjusted for whatever underlying business progress has occurred since then.

Following the sharp decline, a fresh set of technical levels has become relevant for traders watching the stock closely.

Resistance levels: The classic pivot resistance level R1 sits at 446.60 dollars, with R2 at 472.60 dollars and R3 at 537.60 dollars. These levels are drawn from a wider price range and currently sit well above the current trading price, reflecting how far the stock has fallen. In more immediate terms, the 350 dollar area, visible as a prior consolidation shelf on the shorter term charts, represents the first meaningful overhead resistance zone traders are likely watching for any recovery attempt.

Support levels: The classic pivot point sits at 407.60 dollars, already well above current price, while support levels S1, S2, and S3 sit at 381.60 dollars, 342.60 dollars, and 277.60 dollars respectively. Given that TSLA is currently trading at 311.21 dollars, meaning it is already trading below the classic S2 level of 342.60 dollars and approaching S3 at 277.60 dollars, the stock is in a technically stretched position relative to its own classic pivot framework. This is consistent with Gary Black's public warning that TSLA could fall below 300 dollars per share in the near term.

Looking at the different pivot methodologies together adds useful texture. The Fibonacci pivot places S1 at 382.77 dollars and S2 at 367.43 dollars, while the Camarilla method, which tends to produce tighter, more reactive levels, places S1 at 414.64 dollars and S2 at 408.68 dollars. The Woodie pivot method places its first support at 388.96 dollars. Across every methodology, current price sits below all of the calculated support levels, reinforcing that TSLA has moved into a technically oversold zone relative to its recent trading range, regardless of which pivot calculation method is used.

Where Tesla's technical picture becomes especially clear is in the moving average data. According to the most recent technical readings, the overwhelming majority of moving averages tracked are signaling Sell.

Exponential Moving Average (10): 327.65, a Sell signal.

Simple Moving Average (10): 329.03, a Sell signal.

Exponential Moving Average (20): 350.42, a Sell signal.

Simple Moving Average (20): 363.93, a Sell signal.

Exponential Moving Average (200): 390.49, a Sell signal.

Simple Moving Average (200): 411.60, a Sell signal.

Volume Weighted Moving Average (20): 356.69, a Sell signal.

Ichimoku Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26): 365.12, Neutral, one of the few readings in this category not flashing an outright Sell.

Hull Moving Average (9): 296.68, a Buy signal, the lone clear bullish outlier among the major moving averages, reflecting its more responsive, short term calculation method.

The picture here is essentially the mirror image of what was recently observed in Microsoft stock. Current price at 311.21 dollars sits below nearly every major moving average, from the short term 10 day readings all the way out to the long term 200 day simple moving average at 411.60 dollars. A stock trading this far below its 200 day moving average is generally considered to be in a well established longer term downtrend, and the size of the gap, roughly 100 dollars, or close to 25 percent below the 200 day SMA, underscores just how sharply this decline has unfolded.

The Hull Moving Average reading of 296.68 dollars with a Buy signal is worth noting specifically because it is the most responsive, fastest reacting moving average in this data set. A Buy signal here alongside Sell signals almost everywhere else suggests that very short term price action has stabilized somewhat, even as the broader trend across all longer timeframes remains firmly negative. This is a pattern worth watching for early signs of a bottoming process, though one data point alone is far from sufficient confirmation.

Here is where Tesla's technical picture becomes genuinely more nuanced and, frankly, more interesting than a simple bearish headline would suggest. While the moving averages are overwhelmingly negative, the oscillator readings tell a meaningfully different story.

Relative Strength Index (14): 31.70, Neutral, but sitting close to the traditional oversold threshold of 30. Readings this low often signal that a stock has been sold aggressively enough that a short term bounce becomes statistically more likely, even within a longer downtrend.

Stochastic percent K (14, 3, 3): 7.99, Neutral by the platform's default classification, but this is an extremely low reading in absolute terms. The Stochastic oscillator is bounded between 0 and 100, and a reading below 20 is widely considered oversold. A reading below 8 is a fairly extreme oversold signal.

Commodity Channel Index (20): negative 97.22, Neutral, approaching but not yet through the negative 100 threshold some traders use to flag oversold conditions.

Average Directional Index (14): 30.32, Neutral, indicating a moderately strong trend is in place, consistent with the sharp directional decline visible on the chart.

Awesome Oscillator: negative 71.73, Neutral, but clearly negative, confirming bearish short term momentum.

Momentum (10): negative 69.63, a Buy signal. This may look counterintuitive given the negative value, but momentum oscillators of this type generate Buy or Sell signals based on the rate of change and directional shift in the reading, not simply whether the value itself is positive or negative, and this particular reading is flagged as a bullish signal by the underlying methodology.

MACD Level (12, 26): negative 25.72, a Sell signal, confirming that the broader moving average convergence divergence indicator remains aligned with the bearish trend.

Stochastic RSI Fast (3, 3, 14, 14): 17.09, a Buy signal, another indicator suggesting the stock has been pushed into oversold territory aggressively enough to generate a bullish reversal signal on this faster, more sensitive version of the RSI calculation.

Williams Percent Range (14): negative 87.34, a Buy signal. This indicator is bounded between 0 and negative 100, and a reading this close to negative 100 indicates the stock is trading very near the bottom of its recent range, which this methodology interprets as a bullish oversold signal.

Bull Bear Power: negative 54.33, Neutral, reflecting recent selling pressure but not at an extreme level.

Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28): 32.66, Neutral, a moderate reading that smooths across multiple timeframes.

Notice the pattern here. Three separate oscillators, Momentum, Stochastic RSI Fast, and Williams Percent Range, are all generating outright Buy signals, specifically because the stock has fallen far enough, fast enough, to trigger oversold reversal conditions on these particular indicators. This does not mean a reversal is guaranteed. Oversold conditions can persist, and stocks can continue falling even after oscillators reach extreme readings, a pattern technical analysts sometimes call an indicator becoming pinned. But it does mean that, unlike the moving averages, the oscillator picture for TSLA is genuinely mixed rather than uniformly bearish, and it explains why the Oscillators subgroup carries a Buy rating even while the overall stock carries a Sell rating.

Pulling all of this together, the technical summary rating for TSLA currently reads Sell. This is a composite reading built from the moving average and oscillator signals detailed above, and the underlying counts make the split between those two categories especially clear.

The overall Summary reading shows 14 Sell signals against 8 Neutral signals and only 4 Buy signals, producing an overall Sell rating. Breaking this down by category tells the real story. The Oscillators subgroup shows 1 Sell signal against 7 Neutral signals and 3 Buy signals, an overall Buy rating for that category on its own, driven by the oversold reversal signals discussed above. The Moving Averages subgroup, by contrast, is heavily one sided in the opposite direction, and the composite Moving Averages gauge reads Strong Sell, reflecting how many of the tracked moving averages, across nearly every timeframe from 10 day to 200 day, are currently signaling Sell.

This is close to a mirror image of the pattern recently seen in Microsoft stock, where Moving Averages read Strong Buy and Oscillators read a more moderate Buy. In Tesla's case, Moving Averages read Strong Sell while Oscillators read Buy. Whenever this kind of divergence appears, it tends to signal that a stock's longer term trend structure and its short term momentum extremes are pointing in different directions, and traders need to decide which signal matters more for their specific time horizon.

For longer term investors, the moving average picture is difficult to ignore. A stock trading meaningfully below its 200 day simple moving average, with essentially every shorter term moving average also in Sell territory, is technically in a well defined downtrend. Combined with a credible, detailed fundamental valuation argument from an analyst who has followed the stock closely, arguing that fair value sits close to the current price rather than meaningfully above it, the longer term technical and fundamental pictures are, for once, telling a fairly consistent story: caution is warranted, and the easy, obvious upside case that existed when the stock traded near 480 to 500 dollars several months ago has largely played out and reversed.

For shorter term traders, the oversold oscillator readings deserve real attention. A Relative Strength Index near 31, a Stochastic reading below 8, and Buy signals on Momentum, Stochastic RSI Fast, and Williams Percent Range collectively suggest that TSLA has fallen far enough, fast enough, that a short term bounce or period of stabilization is a reasonably high probability outcome, even if the broader downtrend remains intact. Traders operating on shorter time horizons may find opportunities in that kind of oversold bounce, while remaining aware that the dominant trend, as defined by the moving averages, remains bearish, and that any bounce could simply represent a pause within a larger decline rather than a genuine trend reversal.

The 312 dollar fair value estimate from Gary Black is also worth keeping in view specifically because of how close it sits to the current 311.21 dollar trading price. If that valuation framework is broadly accepted by the market, it would suggest the stock is now trading close to a level several sophisticated Tesla watchers consider reasonable, rather than still meaningfully overvalued or undervalued. Whether the stock breaks decisively below that level toward the 300 dollar mark Black separately warned about, or instead finds support and stabilizes in this general area, will likely depend heavily on upcoming delivery numbers, further earnings estimate revisions, and the broader trajectory of AI and growth stock valuations across the market, given that Tesla has increasingly been trading in sympathy with that broader theme rather than purely as a standalone automaker.

Tesla stock has declined roughly 23.38 percent over the past month due to a combination of factors, including a stretched valuation relative to near term earnings growth as highlighted by analyst Gary Black, who has cited a 2026 price to earnings ratio near 205 times against a PEG ratio of 6.0, declining consensus 2027 earnings estimates, uncertainty around speculation of a potential SpaceX transaction, and general profit taking following a strong rally earlier in the year.

Several oscillators suggest TSLA is approaching or already in oversold territory, including a Relative Strength Index near 31.70, a Stochastic percent K reading below 8, and outright Buy signals on the Momentum, Stochastic RSI Fast, and Williams Percent Range indicators. However, the broader trend, as measured by nearly every moving average from the 10 day to the 200 day, remains firmly bearish, so oversold conditions do not necessarily mean an immediate reversal is imminent.

Based on classic pivot point analysis, key support levels sit at 381.60 dollars, 342.60 dollars, and 277.60 dollars, with the stock currently trading below the middle support level. Key resistance levels sit at 446.60 dollars, 472.60 dollars, and 537.60 dollars, all currently well above the trading price given the extent of the recent decline.

The technical summary rating for TSLA is currently Sell, driven primarily by a Strong Sell reading across its moving averages, even though its oscillators currently read Buy due to oversold conditions. This is not financial advice, and any investment decision should weigh the fundamental valuation debate, including analyst Gary Black's 312 dollar fair value estimate, against individual risk tolerance and time horizon.

Tesla stock is currently caught between two conflicting technical signals. Its moving averages, spanning every meaningful timeframe, are firmly bearish, reflecting a genuine and substantial downtrend that has erased more than 20 percent of the stock's value in a single month and brought its trailing 12 month return back to roughly breakeven. At the same time, several of its momentum oscillators have reached oversold extremes that historically increase the odds of at least a short term bounce or stabilization period. Layered on top of that technical picture is a genuine, detailed fundamental debate, with a closely followed Tesla analyst pegging fair value right around the stock's current trading price after warning for weeks that the stock was overvalued and could fall further. Whether TSLA stabilizes here, tests the 300 dollar level Gary Black has flagged, or begins a more sustained recovery will likely depend on the next round of delivery data, earnings estimate revisions, and how the broader market treats richly valued growth and AI adjacent stocks in the weeks ahead.