XRP is maintaining its downtrend with LH/LL structure among altcoins; while trying to hold around $1.35, is a structure change possible with BOS above $1.3956? While market structure gives clear down signals, BTC correlation also suggests a cautious approach for altcoins.
Market Structure Overview
XRP’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The price is forming Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) between recent swing highs and lows, showing bearish character. This is the classic definition of a downtrend: Each new high is lower than the previous high (LH), and each new low retests at a level lower than the previous low (LL). The current price is at $1.35 level, with a 24-hour change of -%0.65 negative. It has failed to hold above EMA20 ($1.40), Supertrend is giving a bearish signal, and $1.60 resistance is anticipated. In MTF structure (1D/3D/1W), there are 13 strong levels: 4 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, 2S/4R balance on 1W. RSI at 40.99 is neutral near oversold, MACD histogram is positive but does not change the overall structure. This is a setup supporting trend continuation: Short-term bearish bias is maintained as long as the down structure is not broken.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
For an uptrend, Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) structure is required: Each high must be higher than the previous high, each low higher than the previous low. XRP currently lacks this; however, the positive histogram in MACD may indicate short-term divergence. If the $1.2654 swing low (score 71/100) holds and the $1.3956 swing high (76/100) is broken, HH/HL initiation is possible. Bullish continuation target $1.9206 (score 31), but low probability. Close above EMA20 ($1.40+ ) would be the first signal before CHoCH (Change of Character). For now, these are speculative; the structure is dominated by LH/LL.
Downtrend Risk
Downtrend confirmed with LH/LL: We stayed below the last swing high $1.3956, approaching the last swing low $1.2654. $1.2146 (65/100) and $1.1172 (62/100) could be the next LLs. Supertrend bearish, BTC dominance rising is pressuring altcoins. Bearish breakdown target $0.7636 (score 22). In this structure, every LH retest triggers sellers; even above $1.37 daily range couldn’t hold.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
BOS (Break of Structure) is the key to trend change: For bullish BOS, need to break and hold above the last LH ($1.3956) – this invalidates the LL structure and signals transition to HH/HL. Then $1.4712 (60/100) is targeted. Bearish BOS is a close below the last swing low $1.2654: This lowers the structure further, opening the way to $1.2146. In MTF, 1W resistance weight (correlated with $68k BTC), $1.60 Supertrend resistance is a critical barrier. Without BOS, the trend continues; for example, 4 support levels on 1D increase downside potential.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing highs: $1.3956 (score 76/100, most critical LH), $1.4712 (60/100). These are acting as resistance; $1.35 price is forming LH below these levels. BOS above $1.3956 turns the structure bullish – swing highs turn into new HLs. Importance: These levels align with %61.8 fib retracements, rejections trigger downsides.
Recent Swing Lows
Recent swing lows: $1.2654 (71/100, main support), $1.2146 (65/100), $1.1172 (62/100). These define LLs; if $1.2654 doesn’t hold, descent to $1.1172 accelerates with cascade effect. Importance: Swing lows test buying volume – scores over 60% strong, but fragile with BTC downside. These levels are critical supports for XRP Spot Analysis or XRP Futures Analysis for long positions.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $66,239 (-%1.67), in downtrend; main supports $64,323, $60,000, $49,685. Resistance: $68,198, $70,580, $74,487. BTC Supertrend bearish, dominance rising – altcoins like XRP are affected with %80+ correlation. If BTC slips below $64k, XRP $1.2654 BOS risk increases; above $68k rally could trigger XRP $1.3956 BOS. For altcoins, monitor BTC key levels: $60k break brings broad downside.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
XRP structure bearish with LH/LL; at $1.35, below EMA20 and Supertrend resistance, short-term down continuation expected. Monitor BOS levels: Bullish $1.3956+, bearish $1.2654-. MTF resistance weight makes reversal difficult. Educational note: Market structure is the foundation of price action – HH/HL bullish, LH/LL bearish; changes predicted with BOS/CHoCH, indicators only confirm. Risk: No news but regulation tracking essential. Be cautious, structures evolve quickly.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xrp-technical-analysis-march-8-2026-market-structure
