Market Outlook: Geopolitical Risks, Employment Data, and Tech Earnings Take Center Stage

Key Takeaways

• Joint U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran over the weekend inject fresh geopolitical risk into financial markets
• Major indices declined through the week; Bitcoin retreated toward $66,000 as gold advanced to $2,596
• February employment report releases Friday; prior month revealed 130,000 new positions, exceeding analyst expectations by over 100%
• Critical earnings announcements include Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Costco, and Target
• Apple begins product rollout Monday, with special presentation scheduled for midweek

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Equity markets finished the week in negative territory as artificial intelligence and entertainment sector stocks produced volatile swings. The S&P 500 registered losses for the trading day, week, and February overall.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

The Nasdaq 100 similarly declined, while the Dow Jones dropped 1.05%. Treasury yields on 10-year notes pulled back to 3.95%.

Bitcoin descended toward $66,000 as the week concluded. Gold advanced to $2,596 per ounce and crude oil climbed to $67.29 per barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price

During the weekend, coordinated U.S. and Israeli forces executed military strikes against Iranian targets. President Trump issued statements encouraging regime change in Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes from Iran targeting Israeli territory and Gulf region nations.

Crude oil prices had already been climbing throughout the week on mounting Iran-related tensions. Additional escalation could drive energy prices higher, impacting sectors including energy production, transportation, and defense manufacturing.

Employment Data Takes Priority

The February employment situation report publishes Friday. January’s report revealed employers added 130,000 positions, substantially exceeding economist projections.

Source: Forex Factory

That report also included downward revisions to previous months, indicating early 2025 job creation was softer than initially calculated. The Federal Reserve maintains its policy rate at 3.5% to 3.75% as market participants monitor for signs of labor market deceleration.

Unemployment is anticipated to remain near 4.4%. A softer reading could reignite speculation about potential rate reductions in March or May.

The postponed January retail sales data also releases Friday. December figures showed consumer spending momentum stalled as the year ended, with subdued employment growth identified as a contributing factor.

Corporate Results Continue Rolling In

Broadcom announces results Wednesday with analysts projecting approximately $19.22 billion in quarterly revenue. The company indicated in December that artificial intelligence-related sales would experience a doubling during the period.

CrowdStrike delivers its report Tuesday. Software companies face headwinds from concerns about AI-driven disruption, though certain analysts view artificial intelligence as creating expansion opportunities in cybersecurity.

Marvell Technology follows on Thursday. Market watchers will scrutinize AI semiconductor demand following Nvidia’s exceptional quarter featuring $68.1 billion in Q4 sales.

Target announces results Tuesday under recently appointed CEO Michael Fiddelke, who assumed leadership last month. Target’s stock price has rebounded in recent months following a challenging 2025.

Costco releases earnings Thursday. The retailer’s shares have similarly shown improvement in 2026 after experiencing declines the prior year.

Netflix stock surged 13.82% over the past week after Warner Bros. Discovery accepted a $31-per-share acquisition proposal from Paramount Skydance, rejecting Netflix’s competing bid. Netflix declined to increase its offer and withdrew from consideration.

Apple anticipates unveiling new products beginning Monday, potentially including the iPhone 17 and an affordably priced MacBook. A dedicated special event is confirmed for Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book publishes Wednesday in advance of the central bank’s March 17-18 policy meeting.

Marvell Technology’s quarterly results are scheduled for release Thursday, March 5.

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