Compression Before Lift-Off: Bitcoin’s Late-Cycle Setup for a Q4 ATH

On-chain is still mid-zone, DXY is capped, and spot bid > mapping the $210k base case and the $280k extension into 2026.

Michael P. Di Fulvio

6 min read

·

Just now

--

Share

Press enter or click to view image in full size

https://www.tradingview.com/u/Miked3482/

Executive Summary

• Market structure: BTC is holding the weekly mid-band with higher lows above the SMA-20 and well above the SMA-50, signaling trend continuation after a volatility squeeze.
• Macro overlay: A heavy/sideways DXY and a gentle M2 upslope continue to underwrite risk assets—supportive but not euphoric.
• On-chain valuations: MVRV-Z and Puell remain mid-cycle, leaving room before classic blow-off zones. Realized Price keeps stair-stepping up as cost basis accretes.
• Base case: Break and hold above prior band high points to a Q4 ATH push toward ~$210k.
• Extension case: If institutional spot demand persists and DXY stays capped, the cycle can stretch into Q2 2026, with a measured path to $280k.
• Risk: Policy shocks (trade/FX) and a premature buildup of derivatives leverage without spot sponsorship.

TradFi Recap

A tariff headline shock rattled equities; BTC and gold outperformed on the day. Investor flows into…