65% Chinese voter turnout will see PH take key BN seats, says think tank

The Centre for Malaysian Chinese Studies said PH had a slow start in its election campaign but has since seen its support base stabilise after a week of campaigning.

PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan has a good chance at wresting several marginal seats from Barisan Nasional in the Johor polls if there is a 65% turnout among Chinese voters, says a think tank.

The Centre for Malaysian Chinese Studies (CMCS) said PH had a slow start after the Johor state election campaign began but has since seen its support base stabilise after a week of campaigning, Oriental Daily reported.

It said the coalition must galvanise outstation voters and also woo Malay swing voters who voted for Perikatan Nasional in the 2022 state election.

PN has been fraught with internal division after PAS ended its political cooperation with Bersatu last month. Both parties are contesting in the Johor polls under the same banner but are not campaigning for each other.

“If PH’s campaign momentum intensifies in the final stretch and pushes Chinese voter turnout to 65%, it will strengthen its position in all marginal constituencies,” said the think tank.

There are three seats BN won by less than 1,000 votes in 2022, namely Bukit Pasir (198-vote majority), Parit Yaani (294) and Serom (699).

The last Johor state election in March 2022 saw a final voter turnout of 54.92% as BN won 40 of the 56 seats up for grabs, giving the Umno-led coalition a two-thirds majority in the legislative assembly.

However, the 2022 general election (GE15) eight months later saw a 74.13% turnout as PH won 13 parliamentary seats in Johor compared with BN’s nine.

CMCS said the turnout of Chinese voters in the last state polls was even lower at 45% largely due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with outstation voters opting to stay put and local voters staying away for fear of contracting the virus.

It projected a 55% to 60% turnout of Chinese voters in this year’s state polls. While this would be much higher than the 45% in the 2022 state election, it would still fall below the turnout at GE15, it said.

DAP in uphill battle to retain 4 key seats

CMCS also said DAP faces an uphill battle to retain four of its 10 seats. It said Chinese voters made up over 50% of the electorate in six seats, giving the party better odds at defending these seats, such as Skudai.

While DAP’s image took a hit from the debacle over now-former Skudai assemblyman Marina Ibrahim, it said the issue has faded from public attention and would only cause minimal impact.

The think tank said the seats to watch are the four DAP seats with less than 50% Chinese voters and about 40% Malay voters – Jementah, Tangkak, Perling and Johor Jaya.

CMCS said BN could emerge the victor in Tangkak, Johor Jaya and Perling since PN has not fielded candidates there, but the final voter turnout remained the biggest factor.

It also said Muda and Rafizi Ramli’s Parti Bersama Malaysia could affect DAP’s vote share by splitting the votes of traditional PH supporters.

The think tank said both parties occupy the same space as PH in the political spectrum, though the current political environment still favours larger parties.

“However, if Bersama manages to retain its election deposit in Johor Jaya, it could split the reformist vote sufficiently to cause DAP to lose the seat, highlighting the disruptive potential of smaller parties.”