JPMorgan resets LLY stock target on drug demand

Eli Lilly (LLY) keeps setting records, and Wall Street’s rating of its stock keeps increasing as well. 

On Tuesday, one of JPMorgan’s most closely watched healthcare stock analysts, Chris Schott, who frequently covers Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Eli Lilly, and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA), gave investors something to pay attention to.

He set a new price target for Lilly that’s well above that of other Wall Street analysts. That says a lot about how far the obesity drug boom still has to run.

For anyone holding the stock or thinking about it before the August earnings, Schott's call is worth a closer look.

JPMorgan raises its Eli Lilly price target to $1,400

JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott lifted his price target on Eli Lilly to $1,400 from $1,300, keeping an Overweight rating on the shares, Yahoo Finance reported.

The target sits well above the roughly $1,305 Wall Street 12-month consensus, and it landed the same day LLY touched a fresh 52-week high.

More Healthcare Stocks:

• JPMorgan resets UnitedHealth stock target for 2026
• Eli Lilly’s hottest drugs face a quiet new threat
• Lilly quietly hands Chinese partner its cancer drug

Schott called Lilly his top pick and pointed to two engines: the international expansion of Mounjaro and steady U.S. demand for Zepbound.

For Lilly's coming quarter, he estimated total sales of about $20.7 billion, roughly $300 million above consensus, CNBC reported.

An Overweight rating means the analyst expects the stock to outperform its peers. The $1,400 target is where he thinks shares could trade by year-end.

Eli Lilly's obesity franchise continues to power record share prices in 2026.

Tom Werner &sol Getty Images

Why Mounjaro and Zepbound keep driving Eli Lilly's growth

To understand the target, it is important to see how dominant Lilly's obesity franchise has become.

According to Lilly's release, in the first quarter of 2026, revenuejumped55.5% to $19.8 billion. The rise was mostly driven by higher demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound. 

What the franchise delivered last quarter

• Mounjaro and Zepbound generated roughly $12.8 billion in combined global sales.
• U.S. revenue rose 43% to $12.1 billion on a 49% jump in volume.
• Lilly raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $82 billion and $85 billion.

Those are the numbers behind Schott's confidence. 

Demand growth has more than offset the lower prices Lilly agreed to in the U.S., which is exactly what its management said would happen.

How the new Medicare obesity program could widen Lilly's lead

The timing of the upgrade is not an accident.

On July 1, Medicare's new GLP-1 Bridge program made Zepbound and the oral pill Foundayo available to eligible patients for as little as $50 a month, The Motley Fool noted.

Related: Eli Lilly makes surprising retreat from major market

With an estimated 20 million Medicare patients potentially qualifying for obesity drugs, some analysts think the $1,400 target could be conservative.

Cheaper access usually means more prescriptions, and more prescriptions push up the sales that Wall Street is already counting on.

Eli Lilly's pipeline and competitive moat in the obesity market

Beyond its current bestsellers, Schott pointed to Lilly's deep pipeline of new drugs.

These new drugs include the oral GLP-1 candidate orforglipron, sold as Foundayo, and the triple-agonist retatrutide.

Together, the two new drugs target a market Schott values at over$200 billion.

Competitor setbacks have also helped Lilly’s rise. 

Weak trial results from smaller rivals have reinforced how hard Lilly's franchise is to challenge, which analysts describe as a wide competitive moat.

A moat, in investing terms, is a durable advantage that keeps competitors from eating into a company's profits.

How Eli Lilly stock has performed against the market

The rally has been steep. Here's how the stock has performed against the market:

LLY share-price snapshot

• Recent price: about $1,235, near a 52-week high of $1,249.45.
• Up roughly 7.5% over the past month and about 14% year-to-date.
• 52-week low of $623.78, showing how far the stock has climbed.

Lilly's market value now sits near $1.16 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratio around 44, The Motley Fool reports.

That high valuation means investors are already paying for a lot of good news.

What Eli Lilly investors should watch before August earnings

The next real test comes on August 5, when Lilly reports second-quarter results.

Schott expects the company to meet or beat the high end of its estimate, but a high bar cuts both ways for a stock trading at record levels.

Key things that still need to go right

• Mounjaro's international momentum has to hold as new generics reach some markets.
• Foundayo's oral pill needs to keep converting first-time GLP-1 patients.
• U.S. pricing pressure cannot outpace the volume gains that have carried Lilly so far.

None of these is guaranteed, and a single disappointing quarter can hit the stock hard.

Anyone weighing LLY should size the position to their own risk tolerance and remember that even strong companies can see sharp pullbacks when expectations are this high.

Related: Banking giant massively resets Jazz Pharma stock price target