Bernstein Sticks With $150K Bitcoin Target Despite Market Pullback

Key highlights:

• Bernstein reaffirmed its $150,000 year-end Bitcoin target
• Analysts say institutional demand is stronger than what sentiment suggests
• Bitcoin ETFs have seen $5.5 billion in outflows this year, but overall flows remain positive

The crypto market has been in a difficult period since the market crash in October, 2025, but investment firm Bernstein has refused to shy away from its prediction. 

Even with the correction that has seen more than half of BTC’s value wiped out from its 2025 peak, the firm still says the Bitcoin price will hit $150,000 by the end of 2026. The coin is currently trading at a price of $63,000, down by about 54% from an all-time high of around $126,000.

 

Bitcoin correction looks different this time, Bernstein says

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said the current downturn does not look like the previous crypto bear markets played out. The firm noted that the correction has reduced Bitcoin by 54% from its peak. However, they said it is still smaller than the 75% to 90% crashes that other bear markets saw.

The analysts also highlighted past trends. Crypto crashes in the past have lasted between 12 and 15 months before finding a bottom. Bernstein said that it's already been three quarters since the bear market started. This suggests the cycle may not have fully played out but has stayed more resilient than other declines.

They said the current Bitcoin price moves tell us the market is maturing. "Crypto feels like it's growing up," the firn wrote in its research note.

The firm admitted that hitting $150,000 by year-end seems more challenging than it did before the sell-off. However, the company still expects the cycle to eventually recover.

Institutional demand remains a key support

One of the top reasons for Bernstein's stance on Bitcoin is the presence of institutional investors. Market sentiment turned negative in recent months because crypto ETFs saw almost $5.5 billion in outflows this year.

The company said that the figure is not as concerning when compared to the ETF sector's total asset base of $74 billion. The analysts said investors may be focusing too much on short-term withdrawals.

Combined inflows from corporate treasury companies and spot Bitcoin ETFs have been projected to reach about $10 billion in 2026. This is way lower than the $60 billion recorded in 2025, but it still represents net positive demand.

Bernstein’s research team used Strategy as an example. Michael Saylor’s firm has continued buying Bitcoin despite the crash. So far this year, the company has bought around 175,000 BTC worth $14 billion. However, Strategy recently sold $216 million worth of BTC to fund dividend obligations.

Data shows BTC surged to around $64,500 before pulling back again after the sale was made. Coinbase BTC premium index also recently hit a 50-day negative premium streak, dating back to May 19.