Bitcoin Price Prediction After Weak NFP Data as Glassnode Spots a Bottom

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price jumped to $62,000 after the weak non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.
• Glassnode noted that it was seeing some signs of accumulation.
• The coin has formed a double-bottom pattern, pointing to a relief rally.

Bitcoin price rebounded above $62,000 on Thursday after weak U.S. labor data eased near-term Federal Reserve pressure. The move followed renewed long-term holder accumulation, but ETF outflows kept recovery risks active.

The rebound came after Bitcoin had traded near multi-month lows earlier this week. Traders treated the labor report as a short-term relief trigger, not a full trend reversal.

Bitcoin Price Rises After Weak U.S. Jobs Data

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 57,000 jobs in June. The figure came below market expectations and pointed to slower hiring across the economy.

The agency also revised May payrolls to 129,000 from the earlier 172,000 estimate. April and May payrolls were cut by a combined 74,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but the decline carried a weaker signal. Reuters reported that about 720,000 people left the labor force during the month.

The official report showed gains in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care. Leisure and hospitality lost jobs despite expectations for seasonal strength.

ADP reported on Wednesday that private employers added 98,000 jobs in June. The figure also showed softer hiring before the official payrolls release.

The softer data reduced concerns over faster Federal Reserve tightening. Treasury yields fell after the report, while risk assets gained support from lower policy pressure.

Bitcoin price benefited from that macro shift because high rates reduce demand for speculative assets. A weaker labor market also raised expectations that policymakers would hold rates steady.

Still, the report did not create a clean bullish setup. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target, leaving traders exposed to policy reversals.

Glassnode is Seeing Signs of Accumulation

Meanwhile, Glassnode, a top analytics platform, issued a report noting that long-term investors were starting to buy the dip despite the ongoing headwinds in the industry.

The report cited the long-term holder net position, which has recently turned positive. While the change is still tiny, the return of persistent long-term buying provides an encouraging signal that conviction is starting to rebuild below the surface.

Long-term holder net position | Source: Glassnode

Another crucial piece of data supporting the contrarian outlook is the fact that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved to the extreme fear zone. In most cases, this retreat is usually a sign that investors have started to accumulate.

BTC Risks Remain

Still, despite the optimism, the reality is that Bitcoin faces some major challenges that will be hard to beat. For example, American investors continue dumping their spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed over $294 million in assets on Wednesday, the tenth consecutive day of outflows. These funds shed over $4.51 billion in assets last month, and have already lost $294 million this month. These funds have now had a net outflow of $6 billion this year.

Most importantly, there are signs that Michael Saylor’s Strategy is starting to sell its coins. The company already sold 32 coins earlier in June, pushing Bitcoin below $60,000 for the first time in months. In a statement on Monday, the company said that it will start selling the coins to boost its cash reserves.

BTC Price Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the BTC price formed a double-bottom pattern at $60,000 and a neckline at $67,100. A double-bottom is one of the most common bullish reversal sign in technical analysis.

Bitcoin price chart | Source: TradingView

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved from the oversold level of 15 in June to the current 45. Also, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator has continued rising.

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the coin will continue rising, with the next key target to watch being at $67,000. The bullish outlook will be invalidated if it drops below the key support of $58,000.

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