Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto recently argued that XRP’s long-term market structure remains bullish despite recent price uncertainty and growing speculation about a possible cycle top.
The analyst emphasized that investors are paying too much attention to short-term market movements while overlooking what he described as the “real signal” on the two-month timeframe chart.
Egrag Crypto stated that the most important indicator for XRP at the moment is the 21 exponential moving average on the two-month timeframe.
According to the analyst, XRP continues to maintain its macro bullish structure as long as the asset remains above that level. He added that a break below the indicator would place XRP in what he called “official macro bear territory.”
The analyst stressed that current market conditions still support a bullish outlook. He highlighted that XRP’s secular trendline remains intact and noted that the asset continues to preserve higher lows on the macro chart. Egrag Crypto also pointed to multi-year price compression as another sign that XRP’s long-term structure has not broken down.
While many XRP supporters continue to focus on ambitious long-term targets, Egrag Crypto argued that the immediate focus should remain on reclaiming major resistance levels. He identified $2.40 to $3.36 as the most important confirmation zone for XRP’s next major move.
According to the analyst, reclaiming those levels would provide stronger confirmation that XRP is preparing for a larger breakout phase. He suggested that discussions around a completed market cycle may be premature because the asset has not yet invalidated its broader technical structure.
Egrag Crypto also shared his probability estimates for several possible market outcomes. He estimated a 40% to 50% chance that XRP has already established its market bottom. At the same time, he assigned 50% to 55% chance for one final capitulation event before a sustained upward move begins.
Despite that uncertainty, the analyst maintained that a major expansion toward the $7 to $13 range remains highly possible if XRP confirms a breakout above key resistance zones.
The analyst further argued that XRP’s prolonged consolidation phase may support the case for a future bullish expansion. He noted that the asset has spent years compressing while still maintaining its macro structure, which he views as an important technical development.
To reinforce his position, Egrag Crypto compared XRP’s long-term behavior to earlier market cycles seen in TSLA. He suggested that assets rarely sustain extended periods of compression without eventually producing a significant cyclical move.
Egrag Crypto concluded his analysis by reiterating that market structure matters more than short-term market “noise.” He maintained that XRP’s broader technical outlook remains intact unless critical support levels fail on the higher timeframe chart.
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