Trade Desk (TTD) Stock Drops After Earnings Miss and Weak Guidance

TLDR

• Trade Desk Q1 adjusted EPS came in at $0.28, missing the $0.32 estimate; revenue of $689M beat expectations
• Q2 revenue guidance of “at least” $750M fell short of the $771M analyst forecast
• TTD stock fell 15% in Friday premarket to $20.14, down 38% year-to-date
• KeyBanc downgraded TTD to Sector Weight, citing weak guidance and competitive pressures
• Oppenheimer and William Blair also downgraded the stock, flagging slowing growth and market share losses

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Trade Desk stock was down 15% in Friday premarket trading to $20.14 after the ad tech company posted mixed Q1 results and issued guidance that disappointed Wall Street.

The Trade Desk, Inc., TTD

Q1 adjusted EPS came in at $0.28, below the $0.32 analyst estimate and down from $0.33 a year ago. Revenue rose 12% to $689 million, edging past the consensus call of $678.9 million.

The earnings beat on the top line wasn’t enough to offset concern about where the business is heading.

For Q2, Trade Desk guided for revenue of “at least” $750 million. That would mark 8% growth, but analysts had been expecting $771 million. The gap spooked investors.

TTD has now fallen 38% in 2026 and is down 61% over the past year. The stock has been sliding since July 2025.

Wall Street Turns Bearish

The analyst reaction was swift. KeyBanc downgraded TTD from Overweight to Sector Weight, pointing to the soft Q2 guidance as the trigger. The firm flagged three pressure points: Middle East instability, friction with ad agencies, and structural shifts in the industry.

KeyBanc noted the first two could ease over time, but the competitive dynamics are unlikely to change soon. The firm now expects TTD’s valuation to reset to a mid- to high-teens 2027 GAAP P/E ratio until growth picks back up.

Oppenheimer also cut its rating to Perform from Outperform, citing a weak revenue outlook and expectations that Q2 growth lands in single digits.

William Blair moved to Market Perform from Outperform as well. Analysts there pointed to increased competition and said Trade Desk has been losing market share — a trend they expect to continue.

That’s three downgrades in one day.

Publicis Audit Adds to the Pressure

The earnings results come against a difficult backdrop for Trade Desk’s agency relationships. In March, French advertising giant Publicis told Barron’s that an independent auditor found Trade Desk did not pass an audit.

Publicis said it would stop recommending Trade Desk as a solution for its clients as a result. That’s a meaningful blow given how much ad spend flows through major agency groups.

KeyBanc specifically called out ad agency tensions as one of the ongoing headwinds for the company.

Trade Desk’s Q1 revenue of $689 million and adjusted EPS of $0.28 were the headline numbers from Thursday’s after-hours report.

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