In brief
- Shares rose more than 7% after hours following results showing services revenue overtook trading for the first time amid aggressive cost cutting measures in the form of job layoffs.
- Gemini highlighted early traction in its newly launched prediction markets business after securing a U.S. regulatory licence.
- Trading volumes fell sharply quarter-on-quarter, reflecting softer crypto market activity.
Gemini shares climbed in after-hours trading on Thursday after the crypto exchange business reported a shift toward more stable revenue streams and outlined an expansion into prediction markets, even as trading activity declined.
The stock rose about 7% to $6.45 in late trading after closing at $6.01, as investors appeared to focus on its improving revenue mix and cost-cutting efforts rather than weaker volumes.
The company reported fourth-quarter trading volume of $11.5 billion, down 30% from the prior quarter as broader crypto market activity cooled, according to a shareholder letter published Thursday.
Despite that decline, transaction revenue held relatively steady, supported by changes to fee structures and a higher mix of retail trades using premium order types.
More notably, Gemini said services and interest revenue surpassed transaction revenue for the first time in the quarter, marking a shift away from reliance on trading activity.
Services revenue rose 33% quarter-on-quarter to $26.5 million, driven largely by growth in its credit card business and higher user engagement.
For the full year, services revenue more than doubled, helping lift total revenue 26% to $179.6 million. Still, the company reported a net loss of $582.8 million for 2025.
The results come as Gemini is repositioning itself beyond a traditional crypto exchange.
The company launched a regulated prediction markets platform in December after securing a Designated Contract Market licence from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
Since launch, more than 15,000 users have traded contracts across categories, including crypto prices, politics, and sports, according to the letter.
“From politics to economic indicators, business, tech, culture, and sports, prediction markets are forecasting the future more accurately and more quickly than traditional pollsters, experts, and media,” the letter reads. “This is a profound change in the world’s source of truth and an equally profound solution to the loss of trust in our institutions and resulting epistemological crisis.”
Gemini said the product represents a new source of transaction revenue that is not tied to crypto market cycles.
The move comes as Gemini faces a class-action lawsuit alleging it misled investors by failing to disclose its plans to pivot into prediction markets in its IPO filings.
The company is also expanding its credit card offering, which saw transaction volume exceed $1.2 billion in 2025, with revenue from the product rising sharply year over year.
At the same time, Gemini has moved to reduce costs and streamline operations. The firm cut roughly 30% of its workforce and is exiting several international markets, including the UK, EU, and Australia, to focus on its U.S. business.
The restructuring is expected to lower expenses and accelerate the company’s path to profitability, Gemini said, particularly as it builds new products to increase user engagement across its platform.
Investors appeared to welcome that shift, betting that a more diversified revenue base and new market offerings could help reduce the company’s dependence on volatile crypto trading activity.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/361849/gemini-shares-rise-after-hours-investors-back-shift-beyond-crypto
