Betting markets turn on Noem as GOP senators break ranks

Political betting markets are flashing red for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, with traders now making her the odds-on favorite to be the first Trump cabinet member shown the door—an abrupt reversal driven by backlash over her attempts to defend the fatal shootings of both Alex Pretti and Renée Good in Minnesota.

Summary

• Betting markets flip: Noem has become the clear favorite on Polymarket and Kalshi to be the first Trump cabinet member to leave.
• Her odds jumped from 12% in late January to roughly 40–43% amid fallout over her defense of the fatal Alex Pretti shooting.
• Bipartisan backlash: Republicans including Sens. Thom Tillis and Lisa Murkowski broke ranks with Trump and called for Noem to step down.

On Polymarket and Kalshi—two online “prediction markets” where users buy and sell contracts tied to real-world political outcomes—Noem has surged to the top of the board for the question, “Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?” After sitting at just a 12% probability on Jan. 21, her implied odds jumped to 43% on Kalshi and 40% on Polymarket as of Wednesday morning.

Prediction markets like Polymarket (crypto-based and settled on blockchains) and Kalshi (a federally regulated exchange overseen by the CFTC) allow traders to wager on events such as elections, court rulings, or cabinet shakeups. Prices move in real time based on buying and selling pressure, effectively crowdsourcing a probability for how likely an outcome is to occur.

Noem’s rise put her well ahead of Attorney General Pam Bondi—who has faced bipartisan criticism over her handling of the Epstein files—and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who has reportedly been accused of taking staff to a strip club during an official work trip.

But Noem bears the brunt of scrutiny due to her early statements about Pretti and Good. Noem, without investigating, claimed that both Pretti and Good were “attacking” U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) employees — narratives supported by no evidence and repeatedly challenged by bystander video and eyewitness accounts.

Why it matters

While Democrats remain split on whether Noem’s exit would meaningfully change Trump administration immigration policy, Republicans have, for the first time, publicly broken ranks with President Trump over her leadership.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who voted to confirm Noem, says:

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who also voted to confirm Noem, chimed in as well:

Some Democrats cautioned that Noem’s departure alone wouldn’t fix deeper issues at DHS. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who also voted for Noem, added:

There’s another market that has a 32% chance that Noem will be out by March 31 and a 24% chance she’ll be impeached by the end of 2026.