Estée Lauder (EL) has completed a major bullish cycle within wave (III), which topped near 374.20. The structure within this advance shows a clear five-wave sequence, with wave I extending strongly and driving the broader trend higher. This type of extension often reflects strong momentum and institutional participation during the impulsive phase.
After completing wave (III), the stock entered a deep corrective phase in wave (IV). This pullback unfolded as a complex W-X-Y-X-Z structure and found support near 48.37. The decline corrected a large portion of the prior advance, but it maintained the overall bullish structure on the higher time frame. Price has now turned higher from this low, suggesting that the correction has likely completed. From the wave (IV) low, the market has already developed a clear 5-3 sequence. This structure supports the idea that a new impulsive cycle has started. We label this move as wave ((1)) followed by a corrective wave ((2)), which sets the foundation for further upside in wave (V).
Upside targets and trading strategy
As long as price remains above 48.37, the bullish outlook stays intact. The next phase should see continued upside within wave (V). In the medium term, the stock has the potential to reach the 168 to 297 area. These levels align with key Fibonacci projections and previous structural zones.
Before reaching higher levels, the market may produce smaller pullbacks along the way. However, these dips should act as buying opportunities rather than signs of weakness. Traders should focus on identifying corrective structures such as 3, 7, or 11 swings to enter in the direction of the trend.
From a broader perspective, wave (V) must break above the previous wave (III) high at 374.20 to confirm a full bullish continuation. This remains a key requirement for the long-term trend to extend further. Given the current structure and momentum, the long-term targets extend well beyond the medium-term resistance zone.
Summary
Estée Lauder has likely completed its wave (IV) correction and started a new bullish cycle. As long as price holds above 48.37, the path of least resistance remains higher. The stock targets the 168–297 range in the medium term, with the potential to break above 374.20 and extend significantly in the long run.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/estee-lauder-el-wave-v-recovery-signals-strong-upside-ahead-202604011325
