Strategy Breaks Its 13-Week BTC Buying Streak: Why MSTR Stock Still Bounced 6%

Strategy (MSTR) bounced 6.31% from its recent low after a bullish RSI divergence flashed on the 4-hour chart, even as the company broke a 13-week Bitcoin buying streak that had defined its treasury playbook.

The bounce mirrors three prior divergence-driven rallies since December, but each one has been progressively smaller. The reason shows up in the Chaikin Money Flow, which has fallen deeper below zero with each attempt. With Bitcoin up 3% at press time and a 0.93 rolling 7-day correlation tethering the Strategy stock price to BTC, the next move depends on whether external momentum can compensate for fading institutional conviction in the stock itself.

Each Divergence Bounce Gets Smaller as Institutional Money Fades

The 4-hour chart shows a bullish divergence between December 1 and March 31. Price printed a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures the speed of price changes, printed a higher low. That pattern has triggered MicroStrategy price bounces three times since February 2026, but the trajectory is telling.

The first divergence, between December 1 and February 12, produced a 24.52% rally. At that time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a volume-weighted indicator tracking institutional buying and selling pressure, sat above the zero line. Large amounts of money were flowing into MSTR stock alongside the price move.

The second divergence, through March 12, produced a 14.72% bounce. CMF had dropped to the zero line and was beginning to slip below it. The third, through March 23, managed only 7.07% with CMF well below zero.

The current MSTR bounce of 6.31% is unfolding with CMF at -0.34, its deepest negative reading in this entire sequence. The pattern is clear. Each time RSI divergence triggers a bounce, the rally delivers less upside because institutional capital is not backing the move. The divergence provides a technical spark, but without CMF confirmation, the spark burns shorter each time.

MSTR RSI and CMF Analysis: TradingView

As bullish divergences appear at swing lows, the newest one formed post-Strategy’s decision to pause its Bitcoin purchases.

The company did not buy BTC during the week of March 30, ending a 13-week consecutive buying streak.

BTC Purchases: Strategy

Since that announcement, the Strategy stock price dropped approximately 9.51% before the current divergence-led bounce began.

Bitcoin’s 0.93 Correlation Is a Lifeline for Strategy Shares and a Risk

Despite the fading internal momentum courtesy of weak institutional moves, MSTR stock retains one powerful external driver. BeInCrypto’s correlation analysis shows a rolling 7-day correlation of 0.93 between Strategy’s stock price and Bitcoin as of March 31. The 30-day correlation stands at 0.91 and the 90-day at 0.92.

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MSTR-BTC Correlation Dune

That near-perfect short-term correlation means Bitcoin’s 3% gain at press time is directly supporting the bounce possibility on April 1.

However, the correlation is a double-edged sword. If Bitcoin corrects, the MSTR stock price will almost certainly follow. And with CMF already at -0.34, the stock has less internal buying support to absorb a BTC-driven sell-off than it did during any of the three prior divergence bounces.

Strategy Stock Price Needs $128 to Keep the Bounce Alive

The 4-hour Strategy price chart frames the levels that determine whether this bounce extends or fails. A close above $128.98 would confirm that the bounce has legs beyond the initial divergence pop. That level aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and sits just 3.3% above the current price of $124.90.

Above that, $136.02 represents the 0.382 level and the first zone where prior bounces stalled. A move above $147.39, the 0.618 level, would be the first signal of genuine trend reversal rather than a diminishing-returns divergence bounce.

MSTR Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, $123.88 is the immediate support. A close below that level would indicate the bounce has already exhausted its momentum. A break under $117.61 opens risk toward the year-to-date lows and would mark a failure of the fourth consecutive divergence.

For now, $128.98 separates a Bitcoin-fueled extension toward $136.02 from another shrinking bounce that fades back toward $117.61.

The post Strategy Breaks Its 13-Week BTC Buying Streak: Why MSTR Stock Still Bounced 6% appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source: https://beincrypto.com/strategy-stock-price-btc-correlation-analysis/