EUR/JPY trades subduedly around 183.00 ahead of flash Eurozone HICP data

The EUR/JPY pair trades with caution around 182.90 during the early European trading session on Tuesday. The cross demonstrates a subdued performance as the Euro (EUR) edges down ahead of the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for March, which will be published at 09:00 GMT.

The preliminary data show that core reading remains steady, while headline figures grew at a robust pace due to higher energy prices in the wake of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the war in the Middle East.

Economists expect the headline HICP to arrive significantly higher at 2.7% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 1.9% in February, with core figures remaining steady at 2.4%. Signs of price pressures accelerating would prompt expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could turn hawkish in its upcoming monetary policy meetings.

Meanwhile, United States (US) President Donald Trump has signaled readiness to end the war with Iran despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, as Washington doesn’t intend to extend conflicts beyond its timeline of four to six weeks, the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) report showed. This will keep the oil price outlook upbeat as almost 20% of global energy products are transmitted through the Hormuz.

During the day, German Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, have unexpectedly declined by 0.6% Month-on-month (MoM) in February, while it was expected to have grown 0.2%. In January, the consumer spending measure also contracted 1.1%.

In the early European trade, the Japanese Yen (JPY) trades slightly higher against its major currency peers amid hopes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could intervene against one-way speculative moves against the domestic currency. The odds of the BoJ’s intervention have accelerated as Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that changes in the foreign exchange (FX) market are key factors that have a huge impact on Japan’s economy and prices, and the central bank will closely watch these moves.

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.