XRP (XRP) price has been sealed in an eight-month downtrend, with the momentum indicators and the XRP/BTC ratio at levels that previously marked cycle bottoms.
Key takeaways:
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XRP price trades at $1.35 on Monday as multiple indicators hint at a cycle bottom.
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XRP price must hold $1.27-$1.30 to avoid a deeper drop over the coming weeks.
XRP’s RSI, MACD print classic reversal signal
Data from TradingView reveals that XRP’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) reached an oversold level of 29 on March 2, signaling fading bearish momentum.
Similarly, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has dropped to its lowest level ever and is about to produce a bullish cross.
Note that previous bullish crosses, particularly aligning with an oversold RSI, have marked macro bottoms for XRP/USD.
This ultimately led to 74%-230%% XRP price rallies, as seen in 2022 and mid-2024.
XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The RSI has now recovered to 34 from 29 in early March. When combined with a buy signal on the MACD, the picture begins to resemble previous cycles.
“Weekly RSI on $XRP just hit one of its lowest levels in years,” analyst Arthur said in an X post on Sunday, adding:
This is the second time “we’ve been oversold in the RSI,” fellow analyst Cryptoinsightuk said in a recent YouTube video, adding:
Additionally, XRP is beginning to stabilize against Bitcoin (BTC) at the bottom of a long consolidation range and has printed a higher high on the daily chart, suggesting that “there is some life at the bottom of this range,” the analyst added.
The last time XRP bottomed against Bitcoin around this level was in June 2025. It marked the beginning of a 56% increase in the XRP/BTC ratio, accompanying a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66.
XRP/BTC chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Technicals aside, Cointelegraph reported that whale accumulation and high outflows from exchanges reinforced the long-term bullish case for XRP.
XRP price must hold above $1.30
Meanwhile, XRP/USD remains cautiously bullish as long as it holds the $1.27-$1.30 support zone.
XRP is “sitting at a very sensitive level, this is where the market chooses direction,” analyst Egrag Crypto said in a recent X post, referring to the area around $1.30.
XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The importance of this support level is reinforced by cost basis distribution. The heatmap below shows that nearly 500 million XRP were acquired around this price.
XRP cost-basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Below that, the next line of defence is the $1.15-$1.12 demand zone, where the 200-week simple moving average is.
If XRP/USD drops below this level, it would be on a free-fall toward the measured target of the bear flag at $0.80, or 42% below the current price.
As Cointelegraph reported, holding $1.27-$1.30 would be a sign of strength among the bulls who must push the XRP/USD pair toward the $1.61 range high to regain control.
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