Cardano breaks critical level as analyst warns of 11% drop

Cardano (ADA) price could be setting the stage for further selling on March 30, after it closed last week below a crucial buy wall around $0.245.​

The Cardano price weekly close below this level has triggered intraday follow-through, opening the path toward an estimated 11% decline to $0.22, as per analysis from Ali Martinez.

ADA/USD 4-hour chart. Source: alicharts

Last week, ADA price opened near $0.25 and finished at approximately $0.241 on Sunday, March 29. As a result of this drop, Cardano price confirmed a break of its multi-week support floor at $0.245, as highlighted by Martinez, who noted this level had held as a reliable bounce zone throughout the prior two months.​

Martinez’s bearish thesis will only be invalidated if ADA price reclaims $0.269 as support, the threshold identified by trading analyst Crypto Patel.

ADA/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Why is Cardano facing a heightened bearish outlook?

Cardano price is facing compounding bearish pressure from both the on-chain and derivatives fronts. Over the past month, large Cardano holders, with wallet balances of 10-100 million ADA, have steadily increased their exposure, although the figure has remained unchanged since February, based on metrics from Santiment.

​The mid-tier holders have distributed their tokens over the past month, leaving about 5.66 billion ADA at the time of this publication. Meanwhile, retail investors – with account balances between 100,000 and 1,000,000 ADA – have been liquidating their positions, leaving approximately 5.75 billion ADA held by this group at the time of reporting.

Cardano holders analysis between September 2025 and March 2026. Source: Santiment

The low demand for ADA from investors has coincided with its declining Open Interest (OI), the total amount of active contracts held by traders across all exchanges.​

ADA Open Interest (OI) Year-to-date. Source: CoinGlass

​Since the beginning of 2025, Cardano’s OI has declined from a peak of approximately $846 million in early January to around $370 million at press time, according to CoinGlass data. Historically, sustained low spot demand combined with derivatives deleveraging, particularly during range-bound price action, has been a reliable precursor to further downside.

Source: https://finbold.com/cardano-breaks-critical-level-as-analyst-warns-of-11-drop/