'Yummy' election result in Trump's backyard has Democrats licking chops: data guru

Democrats are licking their chops for November's midterm elections, according to CNN's Harry Enten, after flipping a Republican seat in the Florida statehouse district that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

Democrat Emily Gregory won a special election Tuesday over the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Jon Maples, and Enten broke down the results and their bearing on this year's congressional races.

"How delicious for Democrats this morning, my goodness gracious," Enten said. "They're waking up, maybe they're going to get brunch at Mar-a-Lago and say yummy, yummy, because this result will make their stomachs feel quite good indeed. Florida's 87th House district election margin – look at this. In 2024, Donald Trump won it by 11 points. Look at this swing all the way to the left. We got Gregory the Democrat, winning it by two points in this statehouse special election."

"I will also note that they flipped a state Senate district as well further north in the state," he added. "So double fun for Democrats in a state that they have been struggling with. Democrats have lost so much power in Florida over the last decade, and then they're able to win in Donald Trump's back yard. Democrats are absolutely loving it."

This race was a continuation of a trend Enten has been tracking since Trump was re-elected in 2024.

"Look what is happening around Mar-a-Lago is not just staying at Mar-a-Lago, it's expanding out," he said. "I mentioned that other districts of the state Senate district they flipped last night in Florida, but it's not just there. It's nationwide, as well. Take a look here, okay, the average 2025, 2026 special election so far, Democrats are doing get this 12 points better, up like a rocket versus Kamala Harris's baseline in 2024. This 12 points is very similar to this 13-point swing that we saw right in Florida, right around Mar-a-Lago in the 87th district."

"I will note, I was counting it up, I believe that is about a dozen different special elections in which we have seen a flip from Republican control to Democrat control," Enten added. "So what is happening and happened last night in Fllorida is really emblematic of what we have seen nationwide so far, which is Democrats very much outrunning the baseline from 2024."

Those results forecast a big Democratic win in November, Enten said, based on historical trends.

"We are getting some really big signs," Enten said. "Look, part of the reason we look at this, it's not just because I love elections, which I absolutely do. ... It is because they mean so much for power come November. Look back through the history books, look back, since I was in high school, look at the special elections and midterm results. When a party outperforms midterm special elections in midterm cycles since 2005, look at this, five out of five times that same party went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives."

"The fact that Democrats are outperforming not just around Mar-a-Lago but nationwide, as well, is a very telling sign for the future," he added. "Look, sometimes history isn't always prologue, but in this particular case, based upon everything we're seeing, I'm betting it is. What happened last night in Florida probably is emblematic of a larger sign that Democrats are very much likely heading towards getting back the U.S. House of Representatives."

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