AAVE is trading within a clear downtrend in the altcoin market; despite the recent lower high and lower low formations, the risk of BOS breakdown against the hold around $111 is high. Will we see trend continuation or a direction change with CHoCH? Critical levels will be decisive.
Market Structure Overview
AAVE’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. While the price is consolidating at the $111.31 level, the 24-hour range has been $108.47 – $112.67 with a slight decline of -0.54%. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and pointing to $133.14 as resistance. In the EMA structure, since the price remains below EMA20 ($114.11), a short-term bearish bias prevails. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects 11 strong levels in 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/3 resistances in 1D, 1S/1R in 3D, 2S/4R distribution in 1W, showing a resistance-weighted appearance. This confirms the general structure’s LH/LL (lower highs/lower lows) character; a strong HH/HL (higher highs/higher lows) reversal is required for upside.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
Uptrend signals are currently weak, but a positive histogram formation on MACD and RSI at 45.20 in a neutral zone near oversold offers short-term bounce potential. If the price breaks above EMA20 ($114.11) and exceeds the $116.7515 swing high, an HH/HL structure could begin. However, this is not possible without breaking the recent LHs (lower highs) below the major high of $163.0543. The market could reach the $149.5350 bullish target only with strong volume (score:26/100).
Downtrend Risk
The downtrend is clear: Recent swing highs have lowered to form LH ($163 to $116.75, now $111.41), and swing lows are showing LL structure ($110.92 and $103.82). Supertrend is bearish, closes below EMA support bearish continuation before CHoCH. Although RSI is neutral, a drop below $110.92 could open the $61.0870 bearish target (score:22/100). This LH/LL sequence requires a $116.75 BOS for trend reversal.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) levels are critical: A close above $116.7515 (score:71/100) and EMA20 break invalidates the down structure and forms HL. This would be a CHoCH (Change of Character) signal, opening the path to $149. Bearish BOS is a candle close below $110.9233 (score:64/100) and $103.8200 (score:66/100); this confirms LL and initiates a drop to $61. MTF’s 1W resistance dominance makes upside BOS difficult. BOS definition: Confirmation of trend change by breaking the previous swing extremum.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
Recent swing highs: $116.7515 (strength:71/100, main resistance), $111.4133 (strength:66/100, current test), $163.0543 (strength:60/100, major LH reference). Current price at $111.31 is testing $111.41; rejection could lead to a drop to $110. These LHs form the backbone of the downtrend; no HH expected without a break. Swing high importance: Acts as resistance, breakout signals trend shift.
Recent Swing Lows
Recent swing lows: $110.9233 (strength:64/100, nearby support), $103.8200 (strength:66/100, strong support). While price holds at $111, a break of $110.92 starts a cascade LL. These lows act as support; hold leads to range, break leads to breakdown. Swing lows serve as long entry or stop-loss references.
Bitcoin Correlation
As a DeFi altcoin, AAVE shows high correlation with BTC (typically 0.8+). While BTC is down -0.17% at $70,592, altcoin pressure is increasing; if BTC breaks major support, AAVE will be dragged to $103/$110. If BTC holds above $70k, a bounce in AAVE ($116 BOS) is possible. Key BTC levels should be monitored: Downward BTC dominance increase crushes AAVE. Correlation analysis: BTC leads, alts follow; independent movement is rare. Click for AAVE Spot Analysis and AAVE Futures Analysis.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Structural outlook is bearish: While the LH/LL sequence continues, the $111-$116 range is a critical test zone. Bullish BOS ($116.75+) required for CHoCH, bearish BOS ($110.92-) for continuation. MTF resistance weight gives short bias, but MACD divergence carries long squeeze risk. Educational note: Market structure defined as bullish (impulsive up) with HH/HL, bearish with LH/LL; shifts with BOS. Follow: Volume, MTF alignment. No news, pure structure focus. Attention: High volatility, risk management essential. (Word count approximately 1050)
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/aave-technical-analysis-21-march-2026-market-structure
