How Visa and Mastercard Are Responding to the Stablecoin Threat in 2026

TLDR

• Visa, Mastercard, and Amex stocks are down 19–23% from record highs due to stablecoin fears and Trump’s proposed rate cap
• Mastercard acquired stablecoin firm BVNK for up to $1.8 billion
• Visa launched a crypto command-line tool for AI agent payments and its tap-to-pay now covers 80% of face-to-face transactions
• Stripe launched the Machine Payments Protocol alongside blockchain Tempo, backed by $500M in funding
• Analysts still expect low-teens earnings growth for card companies in 2026, with combined sales projected at $163 billion

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Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have all dropped sharply from their record highs. Visa is down 19%, Mastercard 18%, and American Express 23%. Two things drove the selloff: President Trump’s proposed 10% credit card interest rate cap, and growing concern that stablecoins could eat into the card companies’ business.

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Stablecoins let merchants settle payments faster and at lower cost than traditional card networks. That has spooked investors. But rather than sitting still, the card companies are moving fast to get ahead of it.

Mastercard agreed to acquire BVNK, a stablecoin infrastructure firm, for up to $1.8 billion. It is the largest stablecoin deal in history. Analyst Sanjay Sakhrani of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods called it “a critical, long-term strategic move” that positions Mastercard as a bridge between traditional and stablecoin payment rails.

Visa has also been active. Its tap-to-pay feature, which uses stablecoins, now accounts for 80% of all face-to-face transactions. The company also launched Visa CLI, a command-line tool that lets AI agents make card payments directly from a terminal.

AI Agents Are Becoming Paying Customers

This is where the story gets broader. On Wednesday, Stripe and blockchain startup Tempo launched the Machine Payments Protocol, an open standard that lets AI agents pay for services on their own — API calls, data feeds, compute time — settling many small transactions into one on-chain payment.

Tempo raised $500 million at a $5 billion valuation last October. Its CEO is Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang, who also sits on Stripe’s board.

Launch partners for the protocol include Anthropic, OpenAI, DoorDash, Shopify, Revolut, and both Visa and Mastercard. The two card giants are collaborators here, not just competitors.

Morgan Stanley projects agentic commerce could reach $385 billion in U.S. e-commerce by 2030. Stablecoin transaction volume hit $33 trillion in 2025, up 72% year-over-year.

The Stakes for Card Networks

A February 2026 report from Citrini Research raised a direct concern: AI agents, programmed to cut costs, could identify the 2–3% interchange fees charged by Visa and Mastercard and route around them using stablecoins, where transactions cost fractions of a penny.

Visa processes $17 trillion annually. Mastercard and Visa currently trade at around 24 and 22 times forward earnings, well below their historical premiums. American Express trades at about 16 times.

Analysts have actually raised 2026 earnings estimates slightly. They expect combined earnings per share for the group to grow in the low teens, on roughly 10% sales growth to $163 billion.

Stripe processed $1.9 trillion in payments in 2025 and acquired stablecoin infrastructure company Bridge for $1.1 billion, positioning itself to own the rail rather than pay card networks for access.

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