Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) Stock Rises 9% After Q4 Earnings Beat

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TLDR

• Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) jumped 8.5% on Monday after beating Q4 EPS estimates by $0.01, reporting a loss of $0.50 vs. the expected $0.51.
• The company posted a GAAP net loss of $46.1 million for Q4 2025 and $162.5 million for the full year.
• Stifel reiterated its Buy rating and $48 price target following results, citing a cash runway into mid-2028.
• Roche’s persevERA trial missed its primary endpoint earlier this month, raising some questions about Olema’s OPERA-02 trial outlook.
• Analyst consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $41, though the stock is down 41% year-to-date despite a 234% gain over the past year.

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Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) climbed 8.5% on Monday after reporting fourth-quarter earnings that edged past Wall Street expectations. The stock hit an intraday high of $16.07 before settling around $15.96, up from a prior close of $14.71.

Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., OLMA

The company reported a loss of $0.50 per share for Q4 2025, beating the consensus estimate of ($0.51) by a penny. It was a small beat, but enough to move the stock.

For the full year 2025, Olema posted a GAAP net loss of $162.5 million. The Q4 loss alone came in at $46.1 million. No earnings call was held alongside the results.

Despite the red ink, the stock has had a wild ride. OLMA is up 234% over the past 12 months, but down 41% year-to-date heading into Monday’s session.

Trading volume came in at 518,220 — well below the average session volume of around 1.6 million. The lower volume may reflect caution rather than conviction on the move.

Analyst Reaction

Stifel was quick off the mark, reiterating its Buy rating and $48 price target after the results dropped. The firm pointed to Olema’s cash runway extending into mid-2028 as a key positive, covering multiple milestones before the expected commercial launch of palazestrant.

Palazestrant is being developed for second- and third-line metastatic breast cancer, with a launch pencilled in for 2027.

The broader analyst community remains constructive. Ten analysts carry a Buy rating on the stock, one has a Hold, and one has a Sell. The average price target sits at $41.00 — well above current levels.

Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating on March 9th. JPMorgan raised its target from $29 to $32 back in November, rating it Overweight. TD Cowen also holds a Buy, arguing palazestrant has better exposure than competing treatments.

H.C. Wainwright did trim its target to $38 but kept its Buy rating following recent trial news.

The Roche Factor

Earlier this month, Roche revealed that its persevERA trial — evaluating giredestrant combined with palbociclib in first-line metastatic breast cancer — failed to hit statistical significance on its progression-free survival primary endpoint. A positive numeric trend was noted, but the miss matters.

The persevERA data is widely seen as a read-through for Olema’s own Phase 3 OPERA-02 trial, which evaluates palazestrant. Topline data from OPERA-02 is not expected until at least 2028.

Stifel flagged that Roche’s full persevERA dataset will likely be presented at ASCO 2026, which could serve as the next major catalyst — or headwind — for OLMA.

On the balance sheet, Olema holds more cash than debt, with a current ratio of 8.03. The 50-day moving average sits at $24.18, well above Monday’s trading levels.

Institutional investors hold 91.78% of the stock. Insiders, meanwhile, have been net sellers — offloading around 805,501 units worth approximately $23 million over the past three months.

The company’s market cap stands at approximately $1.09 billion.

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