Markets Brace for Fed Decision, Oil Crisis, and Nvidia Conference as Iran War Enters Third Week

TLDR

• U.S. stock futures edged higher Monday after Wall Street fell for a third straight week
• Oil prices crossed $100 a barrel as the Iran war blocks the Strait of Hormuz, raising inflation fears
• The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates unchanged Wednesday; Powell’s press conference is the key event
• Nvidia kicks off its annual GTC developer conference Monday with a keynote from CEO Jensen Huang
• Micron, FedEx, Dollar Tree, and Alibaba are among companies reporting earnings this week

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U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Monday morning after a rough week on Wall Street. Dow futures rose 141 points, S&P 500 futures gained 33 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 131 points.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

The gains follow three straight weeks of losses. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6% last week. The Dow fell 2%. The Nasdaq lost 1.3%.

The main driver of the selloff has been oil. The war in Iran is now in its third week and shows no sign of slowing down.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway south of Iran, carries roughly 14 million barrels of oil per day. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has said it will not allow “a liter of oil” to pass through. The strait handles about a fifth of global tanker traffic.

Oil briefly crossed $100 a barrel last Sunday for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Brent crude rose 2.7% to $105.90 on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 2.0% to $98.75.

Trump singled out China and suggested he could cancel a planned April summit with President Xi Jinping if Beijing does not use its influence to unblock the waterway.

The International Energy Agency said it will release 411.9 million barrels from emergency reserves to help offset potential supply shocks.

Federal Reserve Decision in Focus

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Wednesday. The Fed funds rate currently sits at 3.5% to 3.75%. Markets are pricing in near certainty that rates will stay unchanged.

Powell’s post-decision press conference could matter more than the rate call. Some Fed members want cuts because of labor market weakness. Others are worried that oil-driven inflation could worsen. This is expected to be Powell’s second-to-last press conference before his term ends in May.

Goldman Sachs said if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed for 60 days, Brent crude could average $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Nvidia and Earnings Season

Nvidia’s GTC 2026 conference kicks off Monday. CEO Jensen Huang is expected to unveil a new inference-focused chip built partly on technology from Groq, a startup Nvidia acquired for $17 billion in December.

Micron Technology reports earnings Wednesday. The memory chipmaker’s stock has more than quadrupled over the past year. Its last quarter showed a 60% year-over-year sales jump.

FedEx reports Thursday, along with Alibaba. Dollar Tree also reports and will offer a read on consumer spending. Chinese EV maker Xpeng reports Friday.

The Producer Price Index for February also drops Wednesday, following a January reading that showed wholesale prices rose more than expected.

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