Bitcoin Has Outperformed Stocks and Gold in Every Major Geopolitical Crisis Since 2020

A River analysis tracking 60-day returns across seven major geopolitical events shows Bitcoin delivering positive returns in every single instance, while stocks and gold each recorded losses in multiple scenarios.

What the Data Shows

The table covers seven events from January 2020 through February 2026, measuring the 60-day return for the S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin following each shock. The pattern is consistent enough to be structural rather than coincidental.

During the US-Iran escalation in January 2020, the S&P 500 fell 7% over the following 60 days while gold gained 6% and Bitcoin returned 20%.

During the COVID outbreak in March 2020, all three assets recovered, with Bitcoin leading at 21% against gold’s 3% and the S&P’s 2%. The Russia-Ukraine invasion in February 2022 produced the most striking divergence: gold fell 9%, the S&P gained 3%, and Bitcoin returned 15%. During the US regional banking crisis in March 2023, Bitcoin dominated entirely, returning 32% as the asset most directly positioned to benefit from banking system stress. Gold returned 11% and the S&P 4%.

The Yen carry trade unwinding in August 2024 is the single exception in Bitcoin’s record. It returned only 3%, its weakest performance in the dataset, while gold gained 9% and the S&P 7%. That event was a liquidity shock rather than a geopolitical one, which may explain why Bitcoin behaved more like a risk asset than a safe haven in that instance.

Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement in April 2025 produced a 24% Bitcoin return against gold’s 8% and the S&P’s 4%. The current Iran conflict, measured from February 28, 2026 through March 13, already shows Bitcoin up 14% while both the S&P and gold are negative at 3% and 4% respectively.

The Pattern Across Seven Events

Bitcoin delivered positive 60-day returns following all seven events. Its average return across the dataset is approximately 18%, compared to roughly 3% for the S&P 500 and around 4% for gold. Gold recorded negative returns twice. The S&P recorded negative returns twice. Bitcoin recorded its lowest return at 3% during the carry trade unwind, still positive.

The safe haven narrative for Bitcoin has historically been contested. The 2022 bear market showed Bitcoin falling sharply alongside risk assets during a period of monetary tightening. What this dataset shows is a different dimension of Bitcoin’s behaviour specifically in response to geopolitical and financial system stress events rather than monetary policy cycles.

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What the Current Iran Conflict Data Adds

The most recent entry, the Iran conflict beginning February 28, 2026, is the most directly relevant to current market conditions. With stocks and gold both negative at the 13-day mark and Bitcoin already up 14%, the early data is consistent with the prior pattern. Whether it holds through the full 60-day window depends on how the conflict develops and how the macro data releases this week affect broader risk appetite.

The table does not resolve the debate about whether Bitcoin is a safe haven asset in a traditional sense. It documents what has actually happened in the 60 days following major stress events. Six of seven times, Bitcoin was the best performing asset in the comparison. The exception involved a liquidity mechanism, not geopolitics.

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