Stock Futures Gain as Oil Retreats from $100 and Bitcoin Surges Above $72,000

TLDR

• Stock futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posted gains Friday morning following a sharp decline the previous day, supported by a modest retreat in oil prices.
• Brent crude momentarily breached the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since August 2022, subsequently falling back to approximately $99.
• Analysts describe the current oil supply disruption, linked to the Iran conflict entering its second week with the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked, as historically unprecedented.
• Bitcoin climbed above $70,000, with market observers pointing to a social media message from Trump as a potential catalyst for the cryptocurrency’s advance.
• Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted dramatically, with traders now pricing in a 47% probability of no rate cuts in 2026, compared to merely 3% four weeks earlier, amid mounting inflation concerns.

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Friday morning brought relief to US equity markets as stock futures posted modest gains after Thursday’s bruising session pushed all three primary indices to their 2026 lows. Futures contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 each advanced between 0.3% and 0.4% during early trading hours.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

The upward movement came after an Axios report suggested a potential breakthrough in the Middle East crisis. According to the report, President Donald Trump informed fellow world leaders during a Wednesday virtual summit that Iran was on the verge of capitulation. However, official White House confirmation of these statements has not been forthcoming.

Contradicting any notion of imminent surrender, Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, doubled down on Thursday with pledges to continue hostilities. He explicitly stated Iran’s intention to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global petroleum shipments.

As the confrontation between Iran and Israel stretches into its second week, military operations continue to intensify. Fresh Israeli strikes targeted Tehran, while evidence suggests Iranian involvement in missile attacks affecting Dubai and Turkey. The United States military also reported the tragic loss of four service members in a refueling aircraft accident.

Oil Pulls Back But Stays Elevated

Oil prices experienced a modest decline Friday following days of turbulent trading. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped approximately 2% to trade beneath $94 per barrel. Brent crude, the global pricing benchmark, retreated from the psychologically significant $100 threshold after closing above that level Thursday for the first time in over two years.

Energy market experts characterize the current supply disruption as unparalleled in scope and severity. Washington responded by issuing its second exemption permitting purchases of previously sanctioned Russian petroleum, attempting to alleviate supply constraints.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Indian government representatives are engaged in intensive negotiations with Tehran to secure passage for no fewer than 23 oil tankers currently stranded due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Indian officials suggest initial transit approvals could materialize within days.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall Sharply

The petroleum-fueled inflation anxiety is fundamentally altering market projections for Federal Reserve monetary policy. CME FedWatch data reveals traders now assign a 47% likelihood to the scenario where the central bank implements zero interest rate reductions throughout 2026. This represents a dramatic shift from the 3% probability assigned to this outcome just one month prior.

Friday morning saw the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.28%. Meanwhile, the US dollar index gained 0.3%, reaching its strongest position in three and a half months.

Market participants eagerly awaited Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measurement tool. Additional economic data including fourth quarter GDP figures and the January JOLTS employment openings report were also on the calendar.

Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 barrier in early Friday trading. Market commentators suggested a social media message from former President Trump may have contributed to the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum. Gold was tracking toward a weekly decline, pressured by dollar strength.

Thursday witnessed Brent crude’s most substantial single-session percentage increase since May 2020, highlighting the extraordinary volatility characterizing this week’s energy market trading.

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