AVAX price eyes breakout above $10 as Grayscale Avalanche ETF goes live

AVAX price hovered near a key level on Thursday as the market reacted to the launch of a new exchange-traded fund tied to the token.

Summary

• AVAX traded near the top of its weekly range as Grayscale’s Avalanche ETF started trading.
• The new product gives traditional investors exposure to Avalanche and its staking rewards.
• Traders are watching the $10 level, which has acted as a strong resistance zone.

At press time, Avalanche (AVAX) traded at $9.58, down about 0.8% over the past 24 hours. The token has moved between $8.82 and $9.87 over the past week and is now close to the top of that range.

AVAX has gained around 8.8% in the past month as buyers try to push the price higher again. Even so, the token is still about 47% lower than it was a year ago, after the long slide that hit much of the crypto market.

Activity in the derivatives market cooled a bit during the last day. CoinGlass data shows futures volume dropping 26% to $489 million, while open interest slipped 4.41% to $432 million.

When both numbers fall at the same time, it often means some traders are closing positions while others wait for the next move.

Grayscale Avalanche ETF begins trading

The market is reacting to a new product from Grayscale Investments. The firm’s Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF, trading under the ticker GAVA, began trading on March 12 on Nasdaq.

The fund first appeared as the Grayscale Avalanche Trust in August 2024. At that time it was only available through private placement for accredited investors. After a filing with U.S. regulators in 2025, the product was converted into a publicly traded exchange-traded product.

The ETF started trading with a net asset value of $23.33 per share and about $5.55 million in assets under management. It tracks the price of AVAX and also factors in staking rewards earned from the network. Staking on Avalanche returned roughly 7% on average in 2025, which is now reflected in the structure of the fund.

Products like this often bring new attention to a token because they allow investors to gain exposure through traditional markets. Whether the ETF attracts large inflows will likely determine how much impact it has on AVAX price.

AVAX price technical analysis

On the chart, AVAX is slowly moving toward the $10 mark, which has acted as a strong barrier during previous rallies. The price is now close to the upper Bollinger Band near $9.8–$10, and traders are watching to see if it can push above that area.

Volatility has been shrinking over the past several days as the Bollinger Bands move closer together. This type of setup often appears before a bigger move once price finally breaks out of the range.

AVAX has also moved back above its 20-day moving average near $9.1–$9.2. That level held during recent pullbacks and buyers stepped in each time the price approached it.

Momentum has improved as well. Slightly above the neutral zone, the relative strength index is currently at 53. Since the indicator is not yet in overbought territory, price movement is still possible if buying pressure persists. 

Beginning early February, the chart has also started to show higher lows, a pattern that often appears when buyers slowly build positions.

Support is near $9.10–$9.20, while a deeper pullback could test the $8.40–$8.50 area. For now, the main level traders are focused on remains $10. A clear daily close above that line would be the first strong sign that AVAX may be turning upward after months of decline.