Bumble (BMBL) Stock Jumps 25% After Q4 Revenue Beat and App Overhaul Plans

TLDR

• Bumble (BMBL) surged 25% in premarket trading on Thursday after Q4 results came in above expectations.
• Q4 revenue hit $224.2 million, beating the $221.3 million estimate, with average revenue per paying user up 7.9% to $22.20.
• The company announced Bumble 2.0, featuring chapter-based profiles and a potential no-swipe experience in some markets.
• JPMorgan upgraded the stock from Underweight to Neutral, citing stabilizing leading indicators and the upcoming 2.0 launch as a catalyst.
• Wells Fargo cut its price target to $5.00 from $5.50 but kept an Equal Weight rating, pointing to strong Q1 EBITDA guidance of $80 million.

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Bumble (BMBL) popped 25% in premarket trading on Thursday after the dating app company posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and laid out plans for a major product overhaul.

Q4 revenue came in at $224.2 million, ahead of the $221.3 million analysts had forecast. Average revenue per paying user rose 7.9% year-over-year to $22.20.

Bumble Inc., BMBL

That said, the quarter wasn’t entirely clean. Earnings per share came in at -$4.06, well below the expected $0.23. Revenue was also down 14% year-over-year, though it landed at the high end of the company’s own guidance range.

Adjusted EBITDA of $72 million beat management’s own outlook of $61 million to $65 million, giving investors something to work with.

Bumble 2.0 Takes Shape

CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd is pushing a product overhaul aimed at pulling younger users back to the platform. The revamp, called Bumble 2.0, introduces chapter-based profile layouts designed to give users more depth than the traditional swipe format.

Wolfe Herd said the company could test a no-swipe experience in select markets while keeping the swipe feature active elsewhere. AI-powered tools are also being rolled out to improve match quality and engagement.

The company is calling its upcoming AI dating assistant “Bee,” and chapter-based profiles are expected to roll out as part of the second-half 2026 product roadmap.

Analyst Reactions

JPMorgan upgraded BMBL from Underweight to Neutral on Thursday. Analysts said Bumble moved through its “shrink to grow” phase faster than expected, and pointed to the Bumble 2.0 launch in Q2 as a potential catalyst.

Wells Fargo also weighed in, cutting its price target to $5.00 from $5.50 while keeping an Equal Weight rating. The stock currently trades around $2.84, down 58% over the past six months.

Wells Fargo noted that Q1 EBITDA guidance of $80 million came in 42% above consensus — roughly $24 million ahead of expectations. That beat was driven largely by U.S. iOS alternative payments and restrained marketing spend.

The firm expects Bumble app payer declines to improve in Q1 2026, with a projected drop of 125,000 quarter-over-quarter, compared to 159,000 in Q4.

Marketing spend in Q1 is being held back by the timing of new product launches and tech replatforming, both set to begin in Q2.

BMBL has fallen more than 20% year-to-date and trades at 3.55 times projected 12-month earnings, compared to 11.05 times for rival Match Group (MTCH).

Wells Fargo sees revenue growth potential picking up in 2027, driven by new product launches and increased marketing investment later in the year.

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