Top 3 Signs Altcoin Season Index Is Nearing a Bullish Reversal

Key Insights

• Analysis of the Altcoin Season Index showed over 38% of altcoins were trading near their all-time lows. However, the Altcoins/Bitcoin monthly chart was showing early signs of a potential reversal.
• The falling wedge pattern of altcoins, which has been forming for more than 4.5 years, has finally broken out.
• The total Altcoin Market Cap seems to be holding pretty well above the April 2025 lows.

The ongoing bear market, which began in December 2025, has hit altcoins the hardest. Alongside Bitcoin (BTC), the broader crypto sector continued to plummet despite the optimism that followed rallies in the first week of 2026.

Data from CryptoQuant showed that 38.8% of all altcoins were trading near their all-time lows (ATL). This was the highest percentage of altcoins traded around ATL since 2022, when markets crashed following the FTX collapse.

Percentage altcoins near ATL | Source: CryptoQuant

Interestingly, it’s such extreme bear moments that result in market reversals. According to the technical data, there were more than 3 technical indicators suggesting the altcoin season index was nearing a bullish reversal.

Altcoin Season Index Nears Reversal Amid Momentum Indicators Signals

The first signal came from the momentum indicators, namely the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), overlaid on the altcoin/Bitcoin chart.

The MACD flipped green after a long period of bear control since mid-2022. This indicated that the bulls’ strength was outpacing the bears’ as the histogram bars gradually increased in size. The histogram bar reading had exceeded 53.1K and was continuing to grow.

Altcoins/Bitcoin market cap chart | Source: Bitcoinsensus/X

Additionally, the RSI broke above the descending trendline that had confined price since the start of the year 2022. The breakout came after the RSI hit the oversold levels, slightly above the 30 mark. This shift in the RSI’s direction indicated seller exhaustion.

The momentum indicators were beginning to signal a bullish reversal for altcoins against BTC. Thus, the altcoin season index may soon reverse, too.

Altcoin Market Cap Breaks Out of 4-Year Consolidation

Moreover, the monthly chart of altcoin market cap was breaking out of a massive 4-year falling wedge pattern. This supported earlier analysis using the momentum indicators that sent this hint before. In fact, the monthly RSI had also consolidated in a similar pattern.

The charts showed that the altcoin market cap was trading above a support level that has been in place since the 2017 altcoin season. This support level around the 0.08 BTC level initiated altcoin seasons of 2017, 2019, and 2021, which was the most bullish.

Altcoin/BTC market cap chart | Source: Moustache/X

As per Moustache’s analysis, the chart suggested that 2026 would be another year of altcoin rallies. This was evident as the price traded outside the wedge, with the ratio seemingly undergoing a retest phase. The retest was evident, as the monthly chart showed a red candle after this breakout.

A confirmation from this retest could push the altcoin season index higher, with a return to 75 or higher signaling a full-throttle altseason.

Is the April 2025 Low The Reversal Zone?

Last but not least, the recent data also supported this outlook. The altcoin market cap, trading around $717 billion, was just above the April 2025 lows, which resulted in the altcoin season rally between May and September.

This hinted that these lows could as well be the bottom for this year’s altcoin season if it were to materialize. Invalidation remained possible, especially if the altcoin season index stayed below 75.

During this period, some altcoins, like Ethereum (ETH), hit their seasonal peaks in August. New narratives extended this trend to early Q4. The last quarter of the year turned bearish, a complete opposite of the previous years, where crypto was bullish in Q4.

Altcoin market cap chart data | Source: Bitcoinsensus/X

Altogether, these signs pointed toward a bullish reversal in the altcoin season index, which could pave the way for an altseason. Still, more confirmations were needed, especially on the monthly chart, which gave a more stable prediction.

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