Samsara (IOT) Stock Surges 15% After Blowing Past Q4 Earnings Estimates

TLDR

• Samsara (IOT) jumped 15% on Friday after Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.18 beat the $0.13 consensus by $0.05
• Revenue came in at $444.3M, up 28% year-over-year, topping estimates of $422.3M
• Annual recurring revenue hit $1.9B, up roughly 30% year-over-year
• FY2027 EPS guidance of $0.65–$0.69 came in well above analyst expectations of ~$0.33
• Multiple analysts reiterated Buy/Outperform ratings, with price targets ranging from $39 to $44

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Samsara (IOT) posted a strong fiscal Q4 on Thursday, and Wall Street wasted no time reacting. The stock jumped 15% on Friday to $34.10, giving back some of the 17% drop it had suffered year-to-date heading into the print.

The numbers were hard to argue with. Revenue hit $444.3 million for the quarter, up 28.3% from the same period a year ago and well ahead of the $422.3 million analysts had penciled in. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.18, beating the $0.13 consensus by five cents.

Samsara Inc., IOT

The company closed the year with $1.9 billion in annual recurring revenue, up 30% year-over-year — a key metric for a company still leaning into its growth story.

Guidance Turns Heads

The guidance may have been just as important as the beat. Samsara set its FY2027 EPS range at $0.65–$0.69. That compares to a street consensus sitting around $0.33 — more than double what analysts had modeled. Q1 2027 EPS guidance came in at $0.12–$0.13, also above expectations.

Management outlined a 21%–22% revenue growth target for FY2027 and continued to push its AI expansion story.

Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne reiterated an Outperform rating and named Samsara a “top idea,” replacing Oracle on that list. He pointed to vertical integration as a buffer against AI disruption — an argument that carried weight given how hard other software stocks have been hit on that concern.

BTIG analyst Nick Altmann kept his Buy rating but trimmed his price target from $55 to $45 to reflect lower industry-wide valuations. He flagged Samsara’s proprietary dataset as an advantage in building out AI features.

Analyst Price Targets

BMO Capital Markets raised its target from $40 to $44 with an Outperform rating. Piper Sandler lifted its target to $39 from $37 and kept an Overweight rating, implying about 22.8% upside from the prior close. KeyCorp moved its target up to $41 from $40 with an Overweight rating.

Royal Bank of Canada has a $35 target on the stock.

The consensus rating across 17 analysts sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $45.69. One analyst has a Strong Buy, eleven have Buy, four have Hold, and one has Sell.

Samsara’s 52-week range runs from $23.38 to $48.40. The stock carries a market cap of roughly $18.3 billion.

One note that could temper enthusiasm: insiders have been active sellers. Founders John Bicket and Sanjit Biswas each sold 263,900 shares on January 6 at $34.40 per share — roughly $9 million each. Over the past 90 days, insiders sold approximately 2.9 million shares valued at $92 million total. Corporate insiders still hold about 46.5% of the company.

Institutional ownership stands at 96%, with several funds adding to positions in recent quarters.

Samsara’s 50-day moving average sits at $30.39, and the stock’s Friday close of $34.10 puts it back above that level.

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