Analysis: The crypto community's concerns about Iran cutting off oil supplies and impacting the market may be exaggerated.

PANews reported on February 28th, citing CoinDesk, that while many on social media are concerned that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt oil supplies, some experts believe these concerns may be exaggerated. The strait is a crucial passage for approximately 20% of global oil shipments. Some argue that a direct conflict could cause oil prices to surge to $120-$150, triggering an inflationary shock and market sell-off. This potential conflict has heightened tensions in the crypto market, the only place where investors can express fear and risk during the weekend when traditional markets are closed. However, some observers point out that a complete blockade of the strait is not in Iran's interest and is geographically impractical.

Economist Daniel Lacalle stated that Iran currently produces 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, and blocking the Strait of Hormuz would be tantamount to "cutting off its own path." Furthermore, the shipping lanes of the Strait are primarily located in Omani waters, not Iranian waters, because the Iranian side is shallower and unsuitable for large oil tankers. Energy market expert Dr. Anas Alhajji noted that despite numerous wars, the Strait of Hormuz has never been truly blocked because it is too wide and well-protected to be practically closed. Overall, the likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait and cutting off oil supplies is low. However, a full-scale war could still trigger widespread risk aversion, potentially pushing Bitcoin below the key support level of $60,000.