Fed Minutes, Powell’s Speech, and Jobless Data Eye Crypto Impact

TLDR

• The crypto market is closely monitoring three major US economic events this week.
• The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the September FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
• The FOMC minutes are expected to offer insight into the Fed’s recent rate cut decision.
• Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on Thursday that could influence the direction of crypto prices.
• The speech follows his recent comments about assessing financial conditions for policy impact.

The cryptocurrency market remains on alert this week, as three key US economic events could influence the short-term direction of the Bitcoin price. With Bitcoin trading well above the $120,000 mark, macroeconomic signals from the US could determine its next movement. Investors are watching the September FOMC minutes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, and Thursday’s jobless claims report for potential market shifts.

FOMC Minutes May Shift Crypto Sentiment

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the September FOMC meeting on Wednesday, a key moment for crypto price action. That meeting featured the first rate cut in nine months, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00–4.25%. It also introduced Stephen Miran as a new Fed governor, influencing the shift in policy tone.

These minutes will explain the rationale behind the decision and reflect how policymakers framed the risk management approach. Market participants expect clues about further rate cuts before the end of the year, which could lift crypto prices. Conversely, if the minutes show reluctance for more cuts, Bitcoin may face near-term selling pressure.

Crypto traders may react quickly, despite some analysts downplaying the report’s impact due to the absence of economic projections. “These do not include projections, so they will not impact the markets too much,” stated macro analyst xAlex. Still, any indication of easing or tightening could trigger significant price movements across the cryptocurrency market.

Powell Speech May Guide Crypto Direction

Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday, hours after the FOMC minutes are published. His speech follows recent remarks in Rhode Island, where he emphasized that the Fed monitors overall financial conditions to assess the impact of its policy. This week, Powell’s statements may reveal the Fed’s next steps, which are critical for crypto momentum.

“Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech… will be scrutinized for clues on the 2025 path,” one market watcher noted. Investors want clarity on whether Powell leans dovish or hawkish regarding inflation and rate direction. Crypto sentiment tends to respond sharply to his tone, as broader financial conditions influence liquidity in risk assets.

Recent commentary suggests division within the Fed, with nine officials favoring additional rate cuts while seven prefer holding steady or hiking rates. That split adds uncertainty, and Powell’s tone could sway crypto traders either way. Market participants will dissect every word for insight into how policy will evolve into 2025.

Jobless Claims Data May Impact Crypto

The US weekly jobless claims report, due Thursday, also carries crypto implications amid rising labor market sensitivity. It reveals the number of Americans who filed for unemployment insurance last week, serving as a forward indicator. If claims cross the 260,000 or 300,000 thresholds, it could signal economic weakening.

“Jobless Claims are the early warning system for the economy,” said economist Kurt S. Altrichter. “First alert: 260k, Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average.” Such a scenario could dampen equity sentiment and ripple into crypto markets.

However, the ongoing US government shutdown could delay or affect data reliability. That adds uncertainty around how much weight investors will assign to this week’s figures.

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