Bitcoin’s Worst Month Is Coming – Will History Repeat in 2025?

Market data compiled by Coinglass from January 2013 to August 2025 shows that Bitcoin has averaged a -3.77% return in September over the past 12 years, making it the worst-performing month for the asset.

Crypto analyst Lark Davis highlighted the trend, noting that while Bitcoin has enjoyed strong performances in months like October and November, September consistently stands out as a drag on returns. The data reveals a stark contrast: October averages gains of more than 21%, while November has historically delivered a remarkable 46% surge.

The seasonality effect is clear. While the first quarter of the year tends to be mixed—with January and February posting moderate gains and March often pulling back—late Q3 has proven difficult for Bitcoin. August and September together mark a period of weakness before momentum usually picks up again in Q4.

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The big question now is whether 2025 will follow the same script or surprise investors. Bitcoin’s current cycle is shaped by ETF inflows, increasing institutional adoption, and growing global use cases, which could counteract historical seasonal patterns.

Still, veteran traders are eyeing September cautiously, with many adjusting their strategies to account for possible downside volatility.

As the market approaches the end of August, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin will once again stumble into September—or if this time will break the cycle and defy its historical curse.

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