Next week's macroeconomic outlook: Don't be too crazy about rate cuts, don't be too panic about PCE

PANews reported on August 23rd that for most of this month, Wall Street traders flocked to the stock and bond markets, betting that the Federal Reserve was finally ready to start cutting interest rates again. The only thing they were waiting for was the green light from Fed Chairman Powell to maintain this round of gains. They got their wish on Friday, when Powell took a dovish stance in a highly anticipated speech, triggering the largest cross-market rally since April. The cryptocurrency market was boiling, and the price of Ethereum hit a nearly four-year high. Gold rose 1%. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 03:15 on Tuesday, Logan, the 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Dallas Fed, delivered a speech and participated in a panel discussion at the 100th anniversary conference of the Banco de Mexico.

At 7:15 a.m. on Tuesday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams delivered a keynote speech at the Banco de Mexico 100th Anniversary Conference.

Tuesday at 22:00, the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for August and the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August;

At 00:45 on Thursday, Barkin, a 2027 FOMC voting member and president of the Richmond Fed, delivered a speech;

At 20:30 on Thursday, the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the second quarter of the United States will be released;

At 06:00 on Friday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller will deliver a speech on monetary policy;

At 20:30 on Friday, the annual rate of the U.S. core PCE price index in July, the monthly rate of personal spending in July, and the monthly rate of the U.S. core PCE price index in July will be released.

Looking ahead to the US dollar index, downward pressure on the greenback is expected to persist as labor market data becomes a primary focus for the Federal Reserve and market participants almost fully anticipate a rate cut next month. Unless future employment reports significantly alter the outlook, the US dollar index is expected to remain under pressure, particularly against currencies supported by more hawkish central banks. While a rate cut may be imminent for investors, the path forward for subsequent easing is far from straightforward, and uncertainty surrounding the policy outlook is becoming a new focal point.