LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – MAY 03: Sovereignty #18, ridden by jockey Junior Alvarado crosses the finish line to win the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 03, 2025 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
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Sovereignty, the Triple Crown Class of 2025’s Derby and Belmont victor and Saratoga-man-of-the-minute, bestrides the ultra-short Travers Stakes field of five as an undisputed equine colossus. Since by definition and by reputation the Travers remains a horse race in which many different outcomes can slam down upon the assembled, it can even be that Sovereignty is super-ripe for getting blazed in the trademark Saratoga-graveyard-of-champions way?
Certain sporting types will be dreaming of that, but actually, this go-round, sorry, no. He just did it again last month, and in a shorter race by a furlong, which is to say, Junior Alvarado and Sovereignty kept themselves up in the mix and got it done on July 26. Yes, the Kentucky Derby win in the staggering Churchill mud was grittier, and the Belmont was more commanding, but in sheer exhibition of distilled, at-command power, the last three furlongs of the Jim Dandy was for an opposing trainer more terrifying. This morning, despite what the shockingly even-handed morning line tells us, the real-world racing likelihood of anybody being able to muscle Sovereignty into a Travers “defeat” approach slim to none.
Being a generational colossus comes with mighty advantages, and a couple of interesting downsides, the first of those being that Sovereignty’s record of clear, daring and proven wins have literally caused the connections of his best competition — Journalism and Baeza, to name two glaring Triple-Crown-contender Travers no-shows — to hold off coming to Saratoga to face Sovereignty for, in Baeza’s case, the fourth time in as many months.
But before we get into what sort of surprise the super-lightly raced Magnitude could bring to the big stage that the Travers is for 2025 three-year-olds, here’s a refresher on the field and the morning line.
Post Position, Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Morning Line
1) Magnitude, B. Curtis, S. Asmussen, 2-1
2) Bracket Buster, L. Saez, V. Oliver, 20-1
3) Strategic Focus, F. Prat, C. Brown, 6-1
4) Sovereignty, J. Alvarado, W. Mott, 2/5
5) McAfee, J. Velazquez, R. Dutrow Jr., 20-1
(Source: NYRA, 8/22/2025)
Being a generational colossus comes with some mighty advantages, and a couple of highly obvious downsides, the first of those being that Sovereignty’s record of clear, daring and proven wins have literally caused the connections of his best competition — Journalism and Baeza, to name two glaring Triple-Crown-contender Travers no-shows — to hold off coming to Saratoga to face Sovereignty for, in Baeza’s case, the fourth time in as many months.
So, let’s begin with the field of five. Since the “five” includes the Derby and Belmont victor, this already very small number means that a total of four sets of owners and trainers, God bless ‘em, decided that entering the Travers was, for many different equine athletic reasons, a good idea.
Another way to say that would be to say that a very great number of the nation’s trainers — notably, those who ran against Sovereignty in July’s Jim Dandy, very much including Baeza’s two-legged managers — have given a wide berth to the Travers despite for weeks being comfortably bunked in and training at Saratoga in full view of the main man. Indeed, as August on Saratoga’s main track and on the “Oklahoma” track wore on — with Sovereignty and others turning in sterling works, the question only grew: Why bother going up against Sovereignty again? Given the horse, and the amazing shape he is in after this masterful William Mott campaign, for the competitition’s trainers it was only a baby-step to a swift swerve away from today’s race.
SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY – AUGUST 9: Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Jim Dandy winner Sovereignty gets the royal treatment after his work on the Oklahoma Training Center track Saturday Aug.9, 2025 in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. (Skip Dickstein/Albany Times Union via Getty Images)
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As if that weren’t quite enough, there’s yet another way in which the 2025 Travers field was etched and and shaved down by Sovereignty, and that is the looming specter of having to face him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar on November 1. From the perspective of any given trainer who kindles a hope of entering an athlete in the Breeders’ Cup, the management logic of avoiding the Travers is, first, let’s get some room to train and race wherever Sovereignty isn’t training and racing while we wait for the really big showdown in November.
Second, when a trainer or a group of owners absolutely have no choice but to face Sovereignty, as, conceivably, in the 2025 Breeders’, by this post-Triple-Crown point down the career road, it’s a potentially “better” gig to face him at Del Mar for the Classic’s $7 million purse rather than at Saratoga for the Travers’ $1.25 million. The sweetener at Del Mar is five-and-a-half times greater.
Not least, regarding the Classic, running second or third to Sovereignty in a really big stakes — as Journalism and Baeza have done twice — is certainly not a bad look for anybody’s dating calendar upon retirement to stud. Nobody’s much saying that at the moment, but in taking athletes away from the Travers it’s one of the calculations behind the move.
The field being as tiny as it is, NYRA Bets will not offer show betting for the 2025 Travers. The question this weekend is, who’s left standing around wanting to run, and how they got there.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/guymartin/2025/08/23/travers-stakes-2025-sovereignty-looms-over-a-tiny-five-horse-field/
