XRP Price May Stage a Recovery If It Successfully Backtests the 8-Year Resistance Line

TLDR

• XRP is nearing a critical resistance trendline formed over the past eight years.
• The recent downtrend in XRP may be part of a natural market correction after a breakout.
• A successful backtest of the resistance line could signal a trend reversal for XRP.
• XRP reached a peak of $3.4 in January 2025 but has since declined by 63%.
• Traders are closely watching for a “touch-and-go” signal to confirm a recovery for XRP.

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XRP has faced continuous setbacks, dropping by 0.44% on Thursday. The coin now sits at $1.35, experiencing a 52.4% decline since Q4 2025. However, market data suggests that the current downtrend may be part of a larger market plan, as XRP is approaching a critical resistance trendline from an 8-year symmetrical triangle.

XRP Eyes Backtest of Resistance Trendline

The crypto market has faced consistent bearish pressure in recent months, with XRP showing similar weakness. Despite the recent setbacks, data from the 1-month chart indicates a key technical pattern forming. XRP is now approaching a backtest of the resistance trendline, which was broken in November 2024 after years of consolidation within a symmetrical triangle.

In November 2024, XRP broke above the resistance trendline, marking a new bullish phase. The altcoin surged to $3.4 by January 2025 but has since retraced. According to market analysts, the retracement is a natural part of the breakout, as the market often tests the breakout level to confirm the strength of the move.

XRP Price: A “Touch-and-Go” Could Signal Recovery

As XRP approaches the critical resistance trendline, traders are watching closely. A successful “touch-and-go” signal could confirm a trend reversal. This scenario would occur if XRP drops to test the trendline, then quickly recovers, validating the breakout.

Chart Nerd, a well-known market commentator, emphasized the importance of this backtest. He stated, “This backtest is part of the plan. The market needs a touch-and-go for confirmation.” If this pattern holds, XRP could aim for a recovery to between $7.7 and $33, with several Fibonacci extensions within this range. However, if XRP price fails to hold above the trendline, the bullish outlook could quickly turn bearish.

The symmetrical triangle that has shaped XRP’s price movement over the last 8 years has seen multiple fluctuations. The triangle formed after XRP’s rise from $0.005 in 2017 to $3.31 by January 2018. The subsequent years saw a series of lower highs, but the coin managed to maintain higher lows, forming the triangle.

Following the breakout in November 2024, XRP reached highs of $3.66 by mid-2025. However, the market’s bearish trend since then has led to a 63% drop from the peak. XRP’s current position near the trendline is critical, as a successful backtest could signal the start of a fresh rally. Conversely, a break back into the triangle could lead to further declines.

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