XRP Drops Below Aggregate Cost Basis as SOPR Signals Capitulation

According to data shared by Glassnode, XRP has entered a phase where aggregate holder profitability has flipped negative, triggering visible panic selling across the network.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), smoothed with a 30-day exponential moving average, has fallen sharply from 1.16 to 0.96, indicating that a majority of coins being spent are now realizing losses.

This shift marks a structural change in market behavior rather than a routine pullback.

What the Chart Shows

The chart overlays two key data series:

• Green line: XRP SOPR (30-day EMA)
• Black line: XRP price (USD)

SOPR measures whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit (>1) or a loss (<1). When SOPR trends below 1 for a sustained period, it reflects capitulation-like conditions, where holders are willing to realize losses to exit positions.

In the current setup, SOPR has decisively broken below the neutral 1.0 level, confirming that XRP has lost its aggregate holder cost basis.

Historical Parallel: 2021–2022 Consolidation Phase

The behavior closely mirrors the September 2021 to May 2022 period highlighted in the chart. During that phase, SOPR repeatedly failed to hold above 1 as price consolidated lower. That environment was characterized by prolonged distribution, weak upside follow-through, and repeated attempts by price to recover that were rejected as holders used rallies to exit at breakeven.

The present decline in SOPR follows a similar trajectory, suggesting that the market is once again processing excess supply through loss realization rather than sustained accumulation.

XRP Whale Selling Remains Absent as Price Slides

Structural Interpretation

A drop in SOPR from 1.16 to 0.96 implies a rapid transition from widespread profit-taking into forced or emotional selling. This typically occurs when price breaks below a widely held cost basis, invalidating bullish positioning and shifting holder behavior from patience to risk reduction.

From a structural perspective, this condition often leads to range-bound or grinding price action, as the market requires time to absorb sell pressure and establish a new cost basis before upside momentum can rebuild.

Conclusion

XRP’s decline below its aggregate holder cost basis, confirmed by SOPR slipping into loss territory, reflects a market undergoing an stress-driven reset. While this does not define a bottom on its own, history shows that sustained recoveries usually begin only after SOPR stabilizes and consistently reclaims the 1.0 level, signaling that selling pressure has been exhausted rather than merely deferred.

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