XRP is stuck in a downtrend at the $1.44 level; while RSI at 35.80 gives an oversold signal, bearish MACD and Supertrend maintain the downward pressure, indicating that both scenarios carry strong probability.
Current Market Situation
XRP is trading at the $1.44 level with a 0.51% rise in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend continues as a downtrend. The price range has narrowed between $1.37-$1.46, with volume at a moderate $2.32 billion. Technical indicators show RSI at 35.80 approaching the oversold zone, signaling short-term recovery potential. MACD shows a bearish histogram and the price remains below EMA20 ($1.64), strengthening the short-term bearish bias. The Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and the $1.82 resistance is critically important. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 13 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: supports at $1.4306 (80/100), $1.2146 (77/100), and $1.3120 (61/100); resistances at $1.4701 (75/100), $1.5820 (61/100), and $1.6763 (61/100). Bullish target calculated at $2.4106, bearish target at $0.5113, with the current risk/reward ratio appearing balanced.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How Does This Scenario Unfold?
For the bullish scenario, the $1.4701 resistance (75/100 score) must first be broken with increased volume; momentum increase is expected once this level is surpassed. Positive divergence on RSI (RSI making a higher low while price makes a new low) and MACD histogram approaching zero would serve as confirmation signals. Settling above EMA20 ($1.64) and Supertrend turning bullish would strengthen the scenario. A 20%+ increase in market volume and a general altcoin rally (with BTC stabilization) would be triggers. If this breakout does not occur, scenario invalidation happens with a close below the $1.4306 support.
Target Levels
First target $1.5820 (61/100), followed by $1.6763 and $1.82 Supertrend resistance. With strong momentum, the main target is $2.4106 (46 score), aligned with Fibonacci extension levels. Suggestion for profit-taking and trailing stops at these levels: protection at 38.2% retracement.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario is triggered by a daily close below the strong $1.4306 support (80/100 score); this breakdown accelerates bearish momentum. New bearish crossover on MACD, RSI dropping below 30, and selling pressure on volume confirm it. Deepening of BTC’s downtrend (e.g., breakdown below $69,957) pressures XRP. Distance from EMA20 and continued bearish Supertrend increase risk. Bullish invalidation occurs with a close above $1.4701.
Protection Levels
First protection at $1.3120 (61/100) and $1.2146 (77/100), followed by main bearish target $0.5113 (22 score). Stop-loss and position sizing are critical at these levels; if volatility is high, monitor 50% retracement.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Decision point between $1.4306 support and $1.4701 resistance; wait for a volume-backed breakout. For bullish, watch RSI divergence + volume spike; for bearish, BTC weakness + MACD divergence. Daily/4H closes provide confirmation, news flow (regulation etc.) determines direction. Calculate R/R ratio in both scenarios: from current $1.44, bull 67% up, bear 65% down.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $70,133 level in downtrend (-0.93% 24h), Supertrend bearish; this is risky for altcoins. XRP has high correlation to BTC (0.85+), if BTC holds $69,957 support, XRP can recover; if broken, pressure increases toward $65,843. BTC resistances at $72,183 and $78,597; BTC rally supports XRP upside. Rising BTC dominance signals altcoin-less rally, XRP weakens.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
XRP at critical juncture: monitor $1.43-$1.47 range, expect fast moves on breakouts. On daily chart, prioritize Supertrend change, volume profile, and MTF levels. For detailed tracking, visit XRP Spot Analysis and XRP Futures Analysis pages. Do your own analysis, market is open to manipulation.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xrp-technical-analysis-february-9-2026-will-it-rise-or-fall
