XRP Faces a Make-or-Break Test After 30% Bounce

Cryptocurrency research firm MakroVision is cautioning that XRP’s recent rebound, while sharp, has not yet changed the broader technical picture.

Despite a roughly 30% bounce from recent lows, the firm argues that XRP remains trapped in a medium-term bearish structure, with several key resistance levels still capping any sustainable recovery.

Why the Bounce Isn’t Enough Yet

According to MakroVision’s February 2026 analysis, the recent move higher followed what appears to be a “lower low”, a price pattern often associated with capitulation, where selling pressure becomes abrupt and emotional. While such moves can mark the late stages of a correction, they do not automatically confirm a trend reversal.

The firm stresses that XRP must still clear a cluster of technical resistances that have been in place since the late-2025 peak. Until those levels are reclaimed, the dominant trend remains bearish.

The Key Levels That Matter

MakroVision outlines three price zones that define XRP’s near- and medium-term outlook:

• $2.20 – Critical Resistance
  This is the decisive level. A breakout and sustained hold above $2.20, where a major falling trendline converges, would signal a genuine medium-term trend reversal. Failure here keeps bearish control intact.
• $1.80–$1.85 – Signal Zone
  Regaining and holding this range is described as the first constructive step. A sustained close above it would strongly suggest that the recent low is in place.
• $1.35 – Support and Liquidity
  If the current recovery stalls, MakroVision expects a potential retest of the $1.35 area. This zone is seen as the last major line of defense for bulls, where liquidity and historical demand converge.

What the Structure Is Saying

The analysis highlights a persistent “lower highs” pattern. As long as each rally peaks below the previous one, XRP’s downtrend technically remains unbroken. At the same time, the violent nature of the latest sell-off fits the profile of capitulation, hinting that selling intensity may be fading, even if price confirmation is still missing.

Bitcoin’s Bottoming Process May Not Be Complete Yet

What Could Move XRP This Week (Feb 9–13)

Several external catalysts could determine whether XRP can challenge the $1.80–$1.85 signal zone:

• Macro Volatility: U.S. CPI and Nonfarm Payrolls are both due on Wednesday, February 11, likely driving volatility across Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market.
• Institutional Narrative: Developments following the Consensus Hong Kong conference (Feb 10–12), particularly around Ripple’s cross-border liquidity initiatives in Asia, could provide a fundamental spark.
• Altcoin Liquidity Pressure: Large token unlocks in other projects this week may drain liquidity from the altcoin market overall, potentially slowing XRP’s recovery even if its own structure improves.

Scenario Outlook

• Bullish Reversal: Above $2.20 on strong volume and a clear break of the falling trendline.
• Short-Term Recovery: Stabilization above $1.80–$1.85 following the recent bounce.
• Bearish Continuation: Failure to hold recent lows, opening the door to a revisit of $1.35.

For now, MakroVision’s message is measured but firm: XRP may have seen capitulation, but until key resistance levels are reclaimed, the trend has not yet turned.

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