XRP Crashes Below Realized Price As Bears Take Control

XRP fell below its Realized Price on Feb 5, trading near $1.25, a sign that bears are taking control of the market. The Realized Price reflects the average cost basis of all coins in circulation. When the market sits above it, most holders are in profit, supporting confidence and holding behavior.

Breaking below this level indicates that a majority of XRP holders are now in an unrealized loss position, which can lead to more fear and selling.

Source: Alphractal

This level, according to Alphractal, is a very important on-chain transition point. The bulls attempted to hold this level, but the fact that they failed to do so is a sign of a possible transition into a bear market.

On-Chain Metrics Signal Growing Risk

There are a few on-chain metrics that indicate XRP is in a weak position. The MVRV Z-Score is currently at a point in time that has historically distinguished bear market continuation from short-term support.

Source: Alphractal

The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) is also at its transition line, and the Realized Cap Impulse indicates that capital is flowing out of the network. This is an indication that further price declines could result in most of the activity on XRP being in the red, which could lead to more aggressive selling.

Source: Alphractal

XRP Weekly Chart Confirms Corrective Downtrend

According to the technical analysis from TradingView, XRP is in a corrective downtrend on its weekly chart, moving from a consolidation phase following the rally to a corrective downtrend. Since the breakout in early 2025, the price has been in a distribution trend between $2.30 and $3.30 before losing steam.

The current price of $1.25 is significantly below the mid-range price levels, showing that the previous bullish patterns have failed. The median bands emphasize that XRP is currently trading below both the central and lower volatility bands, thus continuing the bearish momentum.

Source: Tradingview

The Trendoscope indicators indicate a lack of activity in the run-up phase and a prevalence of the pullback bars, thus indicating that the short-term rallies are most probably corrective in nature. The resistance levels to be watched are $1.70-$1.85, and the support levels to be watched are $1.00 and $0.95.

Also Read: XRP Tests Key Support as 11% Triangle Pattern Signals Volatility Ahead