By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin’s BTC$73,077.13 bear market feels brutal and could deepen. Analysts are suggesting potential Fed interest-rate cuts and crypto-specific regulatory breaks are required to turn the tide.
But beneath the surface, something as simple as two behavioral biases may play a pivotal role: anchoring bias and regret aversion.
Last year’s bull market didn’t feel like a bull market. Absent was the frenzied retail and institutional stampede of 2020-21 or 2017. Spot ETFs sucked in billions, but mostly as a result of arbitrage bets, not outright bullish positioning. That’s possibly due to the anchoring bias, a mental shortcut where people fixate on one piece of information, like a reference price, and skew their judgment of value.
Investors may have been swayed by bitcoin’s $100,000 price tag, and then balked: “That’s way higher than typical tech stocks, even Nasdaq doesn’t trade that high; must be overpriced.” In other words, they could have anchored on familiar benchmarks, decided BTC was too costly and sat on the fence.
Fast forward to today: Bitcoin trades at $76,000, well off its peak. If it drops under $60,000, a 50% discount to its October high, last year’s holdouts have every reason to pile in long and strong. That’s regret aversion: fear of missing future gains after sitting out, driving aggressive dip-buying in assets with proven upward trajectories.
While behavioral biases offer one compelling theory for a snapback there’s still the possibility that macroeconomic influences and regulatory developments could call the shots.
For now, the crypto market has stabilized, with bitcoin bouncing to $76,000 from overnight lows near $73,000 amid oversold signals from technical indicators. Ether ETH$2,155.58, solana SOL$92.30 and XRP XRP$1.5098 also rose, but are being overshadowed by more substantial gains in monero XMR$380.77, WLFI and other smaller tokens.
Onchain data shows that profit-taking by long-term holders, or wallets with a history of holding coins for over five months, has slowed, according to Tagus Capital.
Still, the risk of a deeper selloff prevails if Wall Street’s tech-heavy index, the Nasdaq 100, extends Monday’s selloff and Treasury yields rise further. Key U.S. data due for release today — the ADP employment and ISM services — could add to market volatility. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Crypto
- Macro
- Feb. 4, 7 a.m.: U.S. MBA 30-year mortgage rate for week ending Jan. 30 (Prev. 6.24%)
- Feb. 4, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for January (Prev. 54.4)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Feb. 4: CME Group (CME), pre-market, $2.74
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Governance votes & calls
- Feb. 4: Stacks to host a townhall meeting.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- Feb. 4: THORChain Solana mainnet is expected to debut.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.
- Day 4 of 4: Web Summit Qatar (Doha, Qatar)
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.14% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $76,051.11 (24hrs: -2.75%)
- ETH is down 0.98% at $2,607.45 (24hrs: -1.75%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.73% at 2,230.96 (24hrs: -1.9%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 17 bps at 2.83%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0028% (3.0748% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 97.53
- Gold futures are up 2.81% at $5,073.50
- Silver futures are up 7.99% at $89.96
- Nikkei 225 closed down 0.78% at 54,293.36
- Hang Seng closed unchanged at 26,847.32
- FTSE is up 1% at 10,417.96
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.21% at 6,008.14
- DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.34% at 49,240.99
- S&P 500 closed down 0.84% at 6,917.81
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.43% at 23,255.19
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.64% at 32,388.60
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.89% at 3,761.64
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 0.7 bps at 4.28%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.13% at 6,950.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,455.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.28% at 49,486.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.63% (-0.02%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02966 (0.61%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 880 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $33.97
- Total fees: 3.3 BTC / $254,499
- CME Futures Open Interest: 115,185 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 5.06%
Technical Analysis
XRP has dipped below key demand level. (TradingView)- The chart shows XRP’s price swings in candlestick format.
- Prices have penetrated support at $1.60. This is the level where buyers stepped in during the April selloff, arresting the slide.
- A drop lower, therefore, indicates significant weakening of demand, suggesting potential for a deeper decline toward $1.00.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $179.66 (-4.36%), -0.19% at $179.32 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $56.16 (-4.59%), -0.32% at $55.98
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.98 (-16.87%), +0.18% at $22.02
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $27.64 (-3.93%), -0.14% at $27.60
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.05 (-0.77%), -0.99% at $8.96
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.34 (+0.13%), -0.46% at $15.27
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.74 (-0.73%), unchanged in pre-market
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.36 (+2.90%), -0.97% at $11.25
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $45.30 (+1.94%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.47 (-6.35%), unchanged in pre-market
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $133.26 (-4.56%), -0.68% at $132.36
- Strive (ASST): closed at $0.68 (-5.67%), -3.08% at $0.66
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.66 (-1.67%), -1.57% at $7.54
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.55 (-4.32%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.15 (+0.88%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$272 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.28 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.28 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $14 million
- Cumulative net flows: $12.02 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.9 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/02/04/how-your-brain-may-drive-bitcoin-higher
