Key Insights
- XRP price prediction turns bearish as top crypto wallets sell nearly 2B tokens since February.
- Rising exchange reserves and weak outflows show buyers remain cautious.
- A break below $1.25 could open the path toward $1.00 and $0.93.
February hasn’t been the best month for XRP price. Despite a few rebounds, the overall XRP price prediction outlook remains weak. More so, the coin is down almost 16% over the past 7 days.
But that’s not the most alarming sign. Big Ripple coin wallets are dumping hard, which makes a sub-$1 price risk imminent It is time to understand how!
Large XRP Holders Are Cutting Exposure
Since Feb. 1, top holders (the biggest XRP whales) have reduced their combined balance from around 27.51 billion tokens to about 25.55 billion. This means nearly 2 billion Ripple coin has left these large wallets in a short time.
When large holders sell, it often shows that confidence is fading. These wallets usually have long-term information, strong risk control, and patience. When they start trimming positions, smaller investors tend to follow later.
This selling has not happened all at once. It has been steady, spread out since early February. At the same time, exchange reserves have been rising.
On Feb. 2, total exchange balances dropped to about 2.67 billion XRP. But within two days, they climbed back to over 2.71 billion. This increase happened while the price was trying to bounce.
Rising exchange reserves usually mean more tokens are being sent to platforms for possible selling. When reserves grow during a rebound, it shows that some traders are using higher prices to exit, not to buy.
That impacts the broader XRP price prediction and the entire outlook.
Weak Ripple Coin Demand Shows Up in Trading Data
Spot trading data also points to weak interest. Since Jan. 30, XRP exchange outflows have slowed down.
Outflows show how many coins leave exchanges for private wallets. When outflows fall, it usually means fewer people are buying and holding.
Right now, XRP outflows are only showing small spikes. There is no strong, consistent demand. This tells us that rebounds are being driven more by short-term trading than by long-term buying.
At the same time, inflows are becoming more visible. More XRP is staying on exchanges instead of moving to cold storage. This creates an extra supply that can hit the market at any time.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, supports this view. RSI measures buying and selling pressure. During strong recoveries, RSI usually forms a clear divergence, where momentum improves even if the price stays low.
In the case of XRP price, this is not happening. RSI is moving down with the XRP price. It is not forming higher lows.
This shows that sellers still control the pace. Buyers are present, but they are not strong enough to change direction.
Without stronger spot demand and better momentum, rallies tend to fade quickly. That is what XRP price has been showing over the past two weeks.
Key Levels Decide the XRP Price Prediction Status
From a chart point of view, the XRP price is trading inside a falling channel. This pattern reflects lower highs and lower lows over time.
As long as the Ripple coin price stays inside this structure, the broader trend remains weak.
The most important level right now is $1.25. This area has acted as support several times. Each time XRP price approaches it, buyers try to defend it. But every bounce has become smaller.
If $1.25 breaks on a daily close, the lower trendline of the channel will also weaken. That combination can open the door to a move below $1 as part of the bearish XRP price prediction.
The next major level for Ripple coin sits near $0.93. This zone comes from earlier consolidation areas and long-term support. If the price reaches this region, it would mean a deep reset in sentiment.
On the upside, XRP price needs to reclaim $1.69 first. Above that, $1.96 becomes important. Only a move back above these levels would suggest that sellers are losing control. Right now, that scenario looks distant.
For the XRP price prediction outlook to change from bearish to neutral, three things need to happen together. Large holders must stop selling. Exchange reserves must start falling again. Spot outflows must rise with stronger volume. Until then, downside risk remains.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2026/02/04/xrp-price-prediction-shows-how-weak-demand-could-drag-ripple-coin-toward-1/
