Legendary investor Dan Tapiero: All in on crypto, Bitcoin aims for $1 million

Interview guest: Dan Tapiero, American macro investor and founder of 50T

Podcast source: When Shift Happens

Air Date: Jul 10, 2025

Organized by: BitpushNews

Preface:

In the ever-changing financial world, there are always some voices that can penetrate the fog and provide guidance. Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings (now renamed 50T) and One Roundt Partners, a veteran of global macro investments who once managed more than $1.5 billion in Web3 and digital assets, has now bet his entire fortune on the trillion-dollar future of cryptocurrencies. This podcast discusses his survival rules in this "new world", risk management philosophy, and unique insights into the development of the industry.

Q: You worked on Wall Street for 25 years, working with legendary investors like Steve Cohen , Stan Druckenmiller and Julian Robertson. What did you learn from them?

Dan: I worked with Steve Cohen for ten years, five of which I sat next to him. He is considered an aggressive trader by the outside world, but he is actually very funny and often tells jokes in the trading hall. He taught me to stay relaxed even in a competitive and tense environment. His short-term trading ability is legendary, and he once shorted the euro for 19 consecutive times and made all profits. Although I prefer medium- and long-term macro trading, it is very valuable to learn this keen perception of market details.

Stan gave me great confidence. He encouraged me to turn macro ideas into real business, so he and I teamed up to create the largest private farmland REIT in the United States. We found that the price of farmland did not truly reflect its productivity, so we invested heavily in farmland in the Midwest and eventually sold it for $450 million, with a huge return. He made me understand that a great investment concept does not necessarily have to be traded in the capital market, it can also be turned into a real business.

Julian shaped my initial macro analysis framework. He made me realize that writing skills are extremely important in investing. You must clearly express your views, assumptions, risks and opportunities, otherwise the idea is meaningless.

Q: You are now one of the most staunch supporters of the crypto space. Why did you turn from traditional finance to this new field?

Dan: I first came into contact with Bitcoin in 2012, but I really decided to go “all in” in 2018. That year, the market had just experienced the bubble burst in 2017, and Bitcoin fell to $3,000-4,000. I thought at the time: Either it will return to zero, or this is the bottom, and there will be huge room for growth in the future. This is the most familiar scenario for traders: when the reward is much higher than the risk, it is worth betting.

I firmly believe that the future of cryptocurrency is a huge market of $10 trillion, and this belief also supports me to be an "all-in" in the industry. I see its huge potential, which drives me to make such a decision.

I realized that Bitcoin is not only an asset, but also a network, a value system, and a technological revolution. It is the greatest decentralized network in human history, and I even think it should be worth more than Amazon. This led me to propose the "10T" vision: the total value of the entire crypto ecosystem will grow from $300 billion to $10 trillion in ten years.

Q: You said that Bitcoin will rise to $1 million within ten years. Why are you so confident?

Dan: It's very simple. If you look at the best performing assets in history, Bitcoin is undoubtedly the best. I think in the next ten years, we will see the value of the entire crypto ecosystem grow from the current value of about 5 trillion US dollars to 50 trillion US dollars. Bitcoin itself will account for 20 trillion of that, which is 1 million US dollars per coin if converted by supply. I think this is a very conservative estimate.

Q: As a professional investor, what are your risk management principles?

Dan: The key to risk management is that you should never put yourself in a position where you can’t recover. In 1994, I made a very large bet on Japanese government bonds and received a return of thousands of times. However, in just one week, I lost half of the profits I made in the previous year. This lesson taught me a deep understanding: “Never put yourself in a position where you can’t recover your investment.” Therefore, I would rather give up some potential upside and firmly control the downside risk. This deep understanding and strict control of risk has become the key to my traversal of cycles and long-term profitability.

All my funds follow this philosophy: no more than 15% of a single investment, and the portfolio structure must be able to withstand 80% or even 90% of the market decline. Bitcoin never needs to be sold, but other assets should be sold the moment you feel "getting rich". That is the peak of emotion, and you must exit in a disciplined manner.

Q: What do you think of young people’s investment behavior in the crypto space?

Dan: I admit that this (crypto) field is 50 times more difficult than everything in the old world combined. Many people can get rich in the short term, but most people will give up in the end. The only way to survive in this market is to adopt a counterintuitive strategy. There is only one way to go: "Buy it and forget it." This means that you must overcome the urge to trade frequently, focus on long-term value, and resist the interference of short-term market noise, otherwise it will be difficult to survive continuously.

To be honest, most young people can't survive a complete cycle. They may make money quickly at the beginning, but soon they will be wiped out or even wiped out in the volatility. If you are not a professional trader, there is only one best strategy: buy, put it in the hardware wallet, and forget it.

I have seen too many guys in their 20s who didn't go to work for a week because their girlfriends broke up. This kind of stress resistance can't survive in a high-risk industry. Crypto is more complex, more volatile, and more cruel than traditional finance.

Q: What is the structure of the assets you currently manage? What is the proportion of personal investment?

Dan: I manage a total of $1.5 billion through 10T and 1RT, and have invested in 23 crypto companies. In my personal asset allocation, crypto-related (including fund shares, Bitcoin, Ethereum) exceeds 50%. I will not operate in the short term, nor will I sell because of a 5x or 10x increase. I think this is a big cycle of ten years.

At the same time, I will also allocate some gold, but it is obvious that crypto assets have become the core driver of my personal wealth growth.

Q: What do you think of NFT and traditional artworks?

Dan: I have collected some classical oil paintings, but now almost no one buys paintings by old masters. Young people are not interested, and the price does not fluctuate. NFT is more like a part of the creator economy, which assigns value to creativity on the chain. I believe that all value will be on the chain in the future, but there are still too many junk projects and scammers in the NFT market now, and it takes time to filter them out.

Q: How do you convince traditional institutions like school funds or pensions to invest in cryptocurrencies?

Dan: In 2019, I convinced my alma mater's high school to invest 1% of the school fund in crypto. At first, everyone said I was crazy, but we bought Bitcoin, Ethereum and some venture capital funds, and now it has increased by more than 12 times. Now, Texas Teachers' Retirement Fund and Michigan Pension Fund have also become our investors. Because we control volatility and diversify allocations, these traditional institutions can "sleep well" and participate in growth.

Q: What do you think are the biggest macro trends of the future?

Dan: I think we are in a period of redistribution of "digital economic sovereignty". The Federal Reserve and the traditional financial system are gradually losing trust, and people are beginning to organize resources, create order, and define value through Bitcoin, stablecoins, DAOs, etc. This paradigm shift has just begun.

Just like when the Internet first started, no one understood HTML, domain names, and servers, today many people still don’t understand concepts like “wallet,” “private key,” and “signature.” But when these tools become invisible, encryption will truly be integrated into daily life.

Q: How would you summarize this era in one sentence?

Dan: 2000 was the golden age of Internet investment; 2020 onwards will be the golden age of crypto capital. I have staked my entire fortune on it.