Bitcoin Price Prediction – Why BTC Could Drop Below $70k

Highlights:

• Bitcoin is pushing lower after losing the $78,343 support 
• Sustained correction could see Bitcoin drop below $70k
• An increasingly hostile macro environment could send Bitcoin lower 

Bitcoin (BTC) is sharply in the red intraday, continuing the selloff that started over the weekend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $75,431, down by 4.81% in the day. However, Bitcoin trading volumes have fallen 13.57% to $69.93 billion on the day. 

Such a drop in trading volumes on a day that the price is going down is an indicator of two things. First, it means holders are not keen to sell their Bitcoin after the current selloff. They could be opting to hold and wait for a price rebound. However, it could also mean that new investors are staying away from Bitcoin at the moment. Overall, both reasons could mean Bitcoin’s price remains subdued for longer. That’s because of an increasingly harsh macro environment.

Partial US Government Weighing Heavily On BTC

One macro factor likely to keep Bitcoin subdued is the ongoing political climate in the US. The government has entered a partial shutdown. This shutdown comes shortly after another shutdown in late 2025 that lasted for weeks.

Such political uncertainty is increasingly pushing investors away from risk-on assets. Bitcoin, a highly volatile risk-on asset, is among the assets facing significant exits from increasingly cautious investors. This is already evident in the fact that Bitcoin ETFs continue to record outflows.

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Nomination of Hawkish Fed Chairman Pushing BTC Lower

The prospect of a hawkish US Federal Reserve chairman worsens the risk-off pivot. A primary expectation was that President Trump would choose someone who would favour more rate cuts over time. However, he confirmed the nomination of Kevin Walsh, a person who favours a small Federal Reserve balance sheet.

https://twitter.com/DrJStrategy/status/2000189729459814665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2000189729459814665%7Ctwgr%5Ec60327d6d20124e2563d91792d4d0d73a74bd7f2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpublish.twitter.com%2F

This could mean no more rate cuts or even possible rate hikes in the future. While this may strengthen the dollar, it could be bad news for assets like Bitcoin, which tend to do well when rates are low or in decline. The odds of a rate hike have worsened because inflation remains an issue, especially now that countries are using tariffs to gain leverage over one another. As such, investors could continue to draw capital away from Bitcoin in the short to medium term. 

Geopolitical Tensions Adding to Bitcoin Price Weakness

An increasingly tense geopolitical environment also bogs down Bitcoin. Whenever geopolitical tensions rise, capital flows into risk-off assets. This is evident in the fact that Gold shot up to over $ 5,000 in January. This was after the US attacked Venezuela and threatened Iran.

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With the threat against Iran still a big issue, capital will likely stay away from risk-on assets such as Bitcoin. That’s because such a war could have spillover effects across the economy due to disrupted oil supply and the interruption of global supply chains. Under such circumstances, the odds are high that Bitcoin could continue to rise in the future.

Technical Analysis – Bitcoin Breaches Multi-Month Support

After a weekend correction, Bitcoin lost a key multi-month support level at $78,343. This is a signal of strong bearish sentiment. If the trend continues, Bitcoin could be headed to prices below $70k in the short term.

Source: TradingView

On the other hand, if there is a rebound back above $78,343, then a rebound back to $80k could follow. Of these two scenarios, BTC could be headed to prices below $70k. That’s because it has lost a significant support level, and the macro factors driving it lower don’t seem to be improving. 

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