Key Insights:
- Bitcoin printed $4.5B in realized losses, the biggest daily hit in almost three years.
- Futures open interest growth keeps weakening since ETFs launched, showing reduced leverage and risk-taking.
- A fresh Stoch RSI crossover signal has matched past bull run starts in earlier cycles.
Bitcoin traders recorded $4.5 billion in realized losses during the most recent price pullback. This is the largest daily loss seen in nearly three years. The data comes from Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL), which tracks gains and losses when coins move on-chain.
The red spike at the end of the chart reflects large-scale selling at a loss. Many of these sales likely came from holders who bought near recent highs. The price of Bitcoin now stands at $87,797.95 after falling 5.8% over the past week. While the price dropped, selling increased, which often happens during sharp corrections.
Speculative Activity Falls Since ETF Launch
Alongside this, futures market behavior has shifted. A chart from On-Chain Mind tracks the 60-day percentage change in Bitcoin futures open interest. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, this figure has been trending lower. The current reading shows another lower high, keeping the trend intact.
Even as price has tried to recover at times, traders are using less leverage.
On-Chain Mind noted,
Source: On-Chain Mind /XThe decline suggests that traders are not taking on aggressive positions. Instead, they may be shifting toward lower-risk exposure or holding spot assets.
Yield Signal Aligns With Past Bull Runs
At the same time, a different signal may be pointing in the opposite direction. Another chart tracks a crossover in the Stochastic RSI of the US10Y*CN10Y yield ratio. Each time this crossover has happened over the last decade, Bitcoin has entered a major bull run. This pattern appeared in 2012, 2016, 2020, and again in 2023. It has now triggered again in early 2026.
Analyst AO posted, “Every time this has happened, Bitcoin has entered a bull run.” Past data shows price rises followed soon after each crossover. Whether this leads to another strong rally remains uncertain, but the signal is repeating.
Source:AO/XCurrent Price and Market Snapshot
Bringing all this into the present, Bitcoin was trading just below $88,000, showing a 1.1% rise in the past 24 hours. The 24-hour volume is over $53 billion.
This move follows sharp selling pressure and reduced leverage across the futures market. Combined with the latest yield crossover, Bitcoin now sits at a key point, with short-term losses and long-term signals pulling in opposite directions.
DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
Source: https://coincu.com/analysis/bitcoin-losses-surge-4-5b/
