USD1: Price Volatility and Stablecoin Mechanism Analysis Under High-Yield Incentives

Author: 137Labs

When Binance launched its USD1 30-day investment program with an annualized return of approximately 20% , the market reaction was much stronger than I had anticipated.

In a short period of time, a large amount of funds switched from USDT and USDC to USD1;

At the same time, spot prices have seen a premium, and various discussions about "whether there will be a decoupling" and "whether to run away early" have spread rapidly.

This article does not intend to provide conclusive "buy or sell advice," but rather to connect the price changes, sources of incentives, and the mechanism of USD1 itself that I have observed during this period, and to conduct a relatively calm review.

First, let's clarify: What exactly is USD1, this stablecoin?

Before discussing prices, it is necessary to understand the basic structure of USD1; otherwise, many arguments are simply "each side talking past the other."

USD1 is a fully collateralized US dollar stablecoin .

Its underlying assets are not complicated, mainly including:

US dollar cash

US short-term Treasury bonds

US dollar deposits

Other highly liquid cash equivalents

In other words, it is neither an algorithmic stablecoin nor a fractional-reserve coin; it essentially follows a relatively traditional and conservative approach.

Regarding transparency and redemption mechanisms

The reserves of USD1 are disclosed regularly and are subject to third-party audits.

This in itself isn't "sexy," but in the stablecoin space, it's often the most easily overlooked yet most important part .

Another often underestimated point is:

There are no fees for minting and redeeming USD1 .

what does that mean?

When there is a premium or discount in the market, the cost of arbitrage is very low.

The resistance to a price return to around $1 will naturally be much smaller.

The real problem with many stablecoins is not "insufficient assets," but rather the inability to redeem them at crucial moments .

From a rules perspective, USD1 is a plus in this respect.

Hosting structure

USD1 assets are held in custody by a regulated trust (such as BitGo Trust ).

This does not mean "absolute security," but at least in terms of compliance and asset segregation,

It is closer to the standards that institutions are willing to accept.

Let's look at the price again: What exactly happened in this round of fluctuations in USD1?

In theory, stablecoins should fluctuate around $1.

However, in reality, short-term deviations are almost inevitable whenever there are strong and concentrated changes in demand .

Phase 1: Investment products launched, premiums appear.

When the 20% annualized wealth management product was first launched, several factors came together:

High enough returns

Limited investment amount

• Capital flows faster than coinage expansion

The result is simple:

There are more people who want to invest than those who can actually get USD1.

In this situation, a secondary market premium is almost inevitable.

During this phase, USD1 was treated as an "entry ticket to wealth management" rather than a stablecoin itself.

Phase Two: Supply increases, and the premium begins to narrow.

As time went on, the situation gradually changed:

• Increased minting scale

Arbitrageurs began to participate.

Early investment funds were locked up.

Prices began to gradually converge towards the anchor value, rather than fluctuating wildly.

This point is actually very important.

If it were a matter of confidence, the trend would usually not be so "mild".

Phase 3: Approaching expiration, returning to normal range.

As the event progressed into its later stages, the price of USD1 essentially returned to normal.

Around $0.998–$1.000 .

This is already a common range for most mainstream stablecoins under normal transaction friction.

Based on the results, USD1, throughout the entire activity period,

There was no real decoupling behavior.

Where does that 20% annualized return come from?

This is the issue that is most easily amplified by emotions in the discussion.

According to crypto researcher @cmdefi's calculations, behind this USD1 investment campaign:

·By World Liberty Financial (WLFI)

• Provided an incentive budget of approximately $40 million per month

In other words, this is a clear market subsidy , not some kind of "mysterious benefit".

With the current USD1 holdings on Binance at approximately $2.5-3.3 billion ,

The corresponding annualized rate of return would naturally fall within the range of 14%–18% .

The larger the scale of participation, the lower the APR, which is a very standard incentive model.

The promotion is almost over, should I redeem my funds early?

From the perspective of mechanisms and pricing behavior alone, I see no reason why there should be a premature run on the bank :

USD1 is a fully collateralized stablecoin.

• Clear redemption rules and low transaction costs

The end of the incentive program does not change the asset structure.

The current price is still within the normal range of stablecoin fluctuations.

Of course, if you buy in a clearly premium range,

Or you don't plan to continue holding the stablecoin after it expires.

Adjusting positions is a perfectly reasonable personal choice.

But this is a different matter from whether USD1 itself is stable.

In conclusion

Looking back at this round of USD1 price fluctuations, rather than being a risk signal,

It's more accurate to describe it as a supply and demand experiment under high and transparent incentives .

In the short term, it was indeed used as a "financial management tool";

However, judging from its rules, reserves, and redemption mechanisms, it doesn't seem like a stablecoin sustained by sentiment.

The benefits will end, the subsidies will be phased out, but the mechanism will remain.

Disclaimer: This article is for personal opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is extremely risky. Before participating in any airdrop or making any investment decisions , please conduct your own research and make a careful decision.