Current market structure is weak with LH/LL pattern indicating downtrend; direction change possible with BOS above $1.99.
Market Structure Overview
XRP is trading at the $1.95 level as of January 22, 2026, and despite a 2.26% rise in the last 24 hours, the overall market structure remains in a downtrend. In this analysis, we evaluate the current trend by examining higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) and lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) patterns. The recently formed LH/LL structure confirms that the downtrend is intact. Price continues to stay below EMA20 ($2.02), and Supertrend is giving a bearish signal ($2.24 resistance). RSI at 43.71 is in the neutral-bearish zone, and MACD with a negative histogram supports the downside momentum. In the MTF structure (1D/3D/1W), there are 11 strong levels: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, 3S/2R on 1W. This indicates a downside-focused structure, but attempts to hold are visible around $1.87 supports.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
For an uptrend, the HH/HL pattern must form. A BOS (break of structure) above the recent swing high of $1.9902 can confirm a higher high. This targets $2.0822 and $2.24 resistance, flipping Supertrend to bullish. If a HL forms above the $1.9418 swing low, a change of character (CHoCH) begins in the structure. However, price is currently below these levels; for bullish continuation, monitor the $2.5023 target (score:45). If price closes above $1.99 with a daily candle, a close above EMA20 signals the start of HH/HL.
Downtrend Risk
The current LH/LL pattern is clear: Recent swing high $1.9902 is a lower high, swing low $1.8783 is a lower low, confirmed. This indicates continuation of the downtrend. A break of $1.8783 (score:74/100) opens bearish targets at $1.7711 (63/100) and $1.3876 (score:22). MACD is bearish and RSI below 50 increases downside risk. Although it has held in the 24h range of $1.87-$1.99, the volume-less rise does not weaken the structure; LH/LL remains intact.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Bullish BOS: Daily close above $1.9902 (score:73) invalidates the down structure and initiates HH/HL. This opens the path to $2.0822; for CHoCH confirmation, $2.24 Supertrend resistance must break. Bearish BOS: Close below $1.8783 brings a descent to $1.7711 and $1.3876 with LL confirmation. In MTF, 1W supports (around $1.77) are critical; a break could trigger panic selling. To invalidate the structure, these levels require swing point-based BOS – not just simple rejection, but a momentum-driven pass.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
$1.9902 (score:73/100): Most critical resistance, recent LH. Staying below this level preserves the downtrend; above it is BOS for bullish shift. $2.0822 (63/100): Upper resistance, aligned with EMA20. These swings define the market structure’s top – a break forms HH and attracts buyers.
Recent Swing Lows
$1.8783 (74/100): Main support, recent LL. If this level holds, a range is possible; on break, $1.7711 (63/100) and $1.9418 (62/100, intermediate support) are tested. Swing lows determine the trend base; LL continuation shows seller dominance. Price is at $1.95 between these swings; holding offers HL opportunity.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $89,932 (0.78% rise) is in a downtrend; Supertrend bearish, supports $89,916/$88,396/$86,637, resistances $90,408/$92,445/$94,276. BTC downside pressures XRP with LH/LL – correlation is high. BTC breakout above $90k helps XRP to $2; $88k break accelerates XRP test of $1.77. If BTC dominance rises, structural weakness increases in altcoins; XRP should wait for $1.99 BOS for independent movement from BTC. Click for XRP Spot Analysis and XRP Futures Analysis.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
XRP structure is bearish with LH/LL; hold at $1.8783 extends range, break opens path to $1.38. For bullish, $1.99 BOS and BTC support are required. Trend reversal comes with CHoCH – wait for HH/HL. MTF levels (11 strong) increase volatility; watch RSI divergence. Educational note: Market structure is read with BOS/CHoCH dependent on swing points; follow levels instead of emotional trading. No breaking news; structural bias remains bearish.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xrp-market-structure-january-22-2026-trend-analysis
