XRP’s RSI has declined to the 38.90 level, approaching the oversold region, but with the MACD histogram’s negative expansion, bearish momentum appears dominant – short-term recovery signal is weak.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
XRP is trading at the 1.89 dollar level as of January 21, 2026, recording a 3.66% decline in the last 24 hours, with the daily range limited between 1.87-1.97 dollars. Volume at 2.05 billion dollars remains relatively high, confirming that this movement stems from selling pressure. The overall trend is downward; the price continues to stay below EMA20 (2.02 dollars), the Supertrend indicator is giving a bear signal, and the resistance level stands out at 2.19 dollars. From a momentum perspective, the indicators point to a weakening trend, though RSI’s low levels may signal potential base formation. Examining multi-timeframe (MTF) alignment, there are 2 supports/0 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, and 3 supports/3 resistances on 1W, totaling 10 strong levels. This confluence indicates dominant downward pressure but suggests supports will be tested. In the short term, a cautious stance is recommended for XRP Spot Analysis followers, while XRP Futures Analysis positions in derivatives markets should be supported by volume.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is currently at 38.90, clearly showing weakened momentum. Positioned just above the oversold region of 30, the indicator appears to have completed a regular bearish divergence in recent declines: While the price made new lows, RSI did not form higher lows, confirming that selling momentum remains healthy. There is no clear signal yet in the search for hidden bullish divergence; on the 1D chart, RSI may form a base as the price approaches the 1.87 dollar support, but the absence of divergence on the 3D timeframe strengthens the bearish trend. This volume-backed decline could trigger an oversold bounce if RSI drops below 30, but at current levels, the sell signal dominates.
Oversold/Overbought Regions
RSI at 38.90 is in the neutral-low region but shifting toward oversold with the last 24-hour decline. Historically, XRP has formed bases in the RSI 35-40 range; for example, we could expect a test toward the 1.77 dollar support at similar levels. This region serves as a warning where buyers might enter, but it does not immediately produce a buy signal due to volume concentration on the sell side. In momentum confluence, RSI shows weakness in alignment with other oscillators.
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
MACD is in bearish territory; the signal line is above the MACD line, and the histogram is expanding with negative bars. The increasing size of histogram bars in recent sessions indicates strengthening bearish momentum – this serves as confirmation of the sell signal line crossover. On the 1D chart, the MACD (12,26,9) histogram is at -0.045, and its distance from the zero line signals the trend’s downward continuation. There is potential for hidden bearish divergence: If the histogram does not contract as the price approaches supports, the decline could deepen. Combined with volume confirmation, MACD stands out as the main driving force of bearish pressure this week. A short-term histogram contraction aligning with RSI oversold could bring recovery into play, but current dynamics are sell-focused.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
The price remains below EMA20 (2.02 dollars), and the EMA9-EMA12 ribbon is bending downward; this confirms complete bear dominance in short-term momentum. Ribbon dynamics reflect weak trend strength – the distance between EMAs is widening without contraction, supporting sells. Daily closes have not shown a pullback toward EMA50 (around 2.10 dollars), reinforcing short-term bearish confluence.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
Medium-term EMA50 and EMA100 form resistance in the 2.10-2.25 dollar band, while long-term EMA200 (around 2.40 dollars) is a distant target. The price staying below EMA20, trading below all ribbon bands, indicates declining trend strength. On MTF, 1W EMAs have flattened; this implies a search for a bottom ahead of medium-term consolidation, but current momentum is downward.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC is down 3.75% at the 89,110 dollar level in a downtrend, with Supertrend giving a bear signal. Main supports at 88,375, 86,687, and 84,681 dollars; resistances at 89,581, 92,492, 92,492, and 94,276 dollars. XRP shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); if BTC breaks below 88k, XRP could accelerate toward 1.77 dollars. Rising BTC dominance poses risk for altcoins – XRP’s recovery depends on BTC breaking above the 90k resistance. If BTC bounces from supports, XRP could test EMA20, but current BTC bearishness is limiting XRP momentum.
Momentum Summary and Expectations
Momentum indicators emphasize bear dominance in XRP: Although RSI at 38.90 approaches oversold, the lack of divergence and MACD histogram expansion confirm sells. EMA ribbon’s bearish bend shows weak trend strength, with volume confirming the decline. Critical support at 1.8799 (score 82/100), on breakout 1.7711 (65/100) could be tested; bearish target 1.3876 (22). In a bullish scenario, 2.5023 (45) is distant, conditional on BTC recovery. MTF confluence with 10 levels is support-focused, but momentum points to sells – be cautious on a break below 1.88. Overall outlook: Short-term bottom search likely, but momentum confluence favors bears.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/xrp-what-do-momentum-indicators-say-21-january-2026-analysis
