Bitcoin is drawing attention in early 2026 as long term valuation metrics, onchain data, and technical levels converge near critical zones. Charts tracking scarcity, whale behavior, and price structure now frame the market around areas that rarely align at the same time.
Bitcoin Hits Lowest Stock to Flow Rainbow Band on Record
Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level ever on the Stock to Flow Rainbow Chart, according to data shared by analyst James Easton. The chart, created by Bitbo, shows Bitcoin’s price now sitting near the bottom green and blue bands, which historically marked long term low valuation zones.
Stock to Flow Rainbow Chart. Source: JamesEastonUK (X)
The Stock to Flow Rainbow Chart maps Bitcoin’s price against its scarcity cycle, using colored bands to show relative positioning over time. As of early 2026, Bitcoin trades near the lower boundary of the model, a level not previously reached in earlier market cycles. The chart also aligns this move with the post 2024 halving period, highlighted by the vertical dotted line.
Past cycles on the chart show Bitcoin entering higher bands after extended periods near the lower range. While the model does not predict timing, it places current price action at an extreme relative to historical patterns. Easton described the reading as bullish, pointing to the rarity of Bitcoin reaching this zone at any point since trading began.
The chart spans data from 2011 through projections into the late 2020s and includes multiple halving events. Despite price volatility across cycles, Bitcoin has generally moved upward through the bands over time. The latest position stands out as the deepest interaction with the lowest bands recorded on the model so far.
Bitcoin Whale Holdings Post Sharp Year Over Year Decline
Meanwhile, Bitcoin whale holdings have shifted lower over the past year, according to data shared by CryptoBusy, showing a sharp drop among large wallets. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC reduced their combined balances by about 220,000 BTC year over year, marking the fastest contraction since early 2023.
Bitcoin Whale Holdings 1 Year Change. Source: CryptoQuant Research and CryptoBusy (X)
The chart, based on CryptoQuant data, tracks one year changes in whale holdings while excluding exchanges and mining pools. It shows the current drawdown following a period of accumulation in 2023 and early 2024, when whale balances rose by more than 400,000 BTC. The latest rollover places holdings firmly in negative territory as Bitcoin trades near recent cycle highs.
Similar patterns appeared in earlier market phases. In 2021 and 2022, whale balances turned sharply negative ahead of major price peaks, with the chart highlighting a much deeper decline of more than 800,000 BTC during that period. The comparison has drawn attention to the pace of the current distribution rather than its absolute size.
Despite the pullback, the data also shows that previous accumulation phases lasted several months before reversing. As a result, the latest shift reflects a change in behavior among large holders rather than a short term fluctuation, based on the one year view shown in the chart.
Bitcoin Holds Weekly Support as Traders Watch CME Gap Retest
Bitcoin is holding above a key weekly support zone while traders focus on a possible short term pullback toward lower levels, according to analysis shared by trader Learnernoearner. The TradingView chart shows BTC trading above the green support box, with weekly structure remaining intact despite weaker signals on the monthly timeframe.
Bitcoin Weekly Support and CME Gap Levels Chart. Source: Learnernoearner (X)
The analysis points to a bullish MACD forming on the weekly chart, while the monthly setup shows limited momentum, suggesting recent strength may reflect a short term rebound rather than a sustained trend shift. As a result, price action remains range bound rather than directional at this stage.
The trader expects Bitcoin to retest the 89,500 to 87,200 zone, which overlaps with a previously unfilled CME gap between 88,700 and 88,100 from two weeks ago. The chart highlights this area as a likely near term downside target if price revisits support. Such gap fills have occurred frequently in past trading periods.
If Bitcoin holds the green support area after the retest, the setup points to a rebound toward the 98,000 level. However, the structure would break if price drops below 86,200, which the trader flagged as the invalidation level for this scenario.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/13712/bitcoin-hits-lowest-stock-to-flow-band-ever-as-whales-sell-and-support-holds
