Risk-on is back, says VanEck, as Bitcoin decouples and short-term signals fade

• VanEck noted that Bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets after the October deleveraging.
• Justin d’Anethan said Bitcoin’s rise in a low-leverage environment shows excess speculation has eased.
• Michaël van de Poppe predicted bitcoin could hit $100,000 after a clean move above $92,000.

Global investment management firm VanEck believes the first three months of 2026 could favour a risk-on environment, as investors regain something markets have lacked for years: clearer direction on key policy forces.

In a Q1 2026 outlook published on Tuesday, the firm pointed to improving visibility around US fiscal conditions, monetary policy expectations, and major investment themes.

That set-up is typically supportive for riskier corners of the market, such as AI and tech stocks, as well as crypto.

However, VanEck said Bitcoin is sending a different message, with short-term signals becoming harder to trust after a break in its usual cycle behaviour.

VanEck sees clearer policy conditions for early 2026

VanEck said markets are entering 2026 with “visibility,” framing it as a more stable phase compared to the uncertainty that dominated previous years.

The firm’s base case is that investors will face fewer shocks linked to fiscal and monetary decisions, creating a backdrop where risk assets can perform more confidently.

It added that improved clarity around policy direction is part of what makes the first quarter attractive for risk-taking.

At the same time, VanEck stressed that its views are medium-term in nature, rather than based on short-lived market events.

Bitcoin cycle break complicates the near-term picture

Despite expecting supportive conditions for risk assets, VanEck said bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle “broke in 2025,” making it difficult to rely on traditional timing signals.

The firm said this has contributed to a more cautious stance over the next three to six months.

VanEck also noted that not everyone inside the company shares the same level of caution, with some executives still taking a more constructive view on bitcoin’s immediate cycle.

The split highlights how unclear the near-term set-up has become, even as broader macro direction appears easier to read.

Bitcoin decouples after October deleveraging

VanEck also flagged that bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets in recent months.

The move followed a major deleveraging event in October, which changed how bitcoin has traded relative to both equities and traditional safe-haven assets.

This matters because bitcoin’s correlation with other markets has often shaped how investors position it in a broader portfolio.

If those relationships weaken, it becomes harder to treat bitcoin as a simple extension of risk sentiment, particularly when leverage conditions shift.

Analysts debate the next move as BTC retests $92,000

Crypto investor Will Clemente said the current mix of market and geopolitical conditions is closely aligned with what Bitcoin was built for.

He pointed to pressure on the Fed chair, rising metals as countries diversify reserves, record highs in stocks and risk assets, and increasing geopolitical risk.

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said he expects Bitcoin to reclaim six figures before the end of January.

He noted there has been no dip below the 21-day moving average, with buyers stepping in to accumulate around these levels.

He added that a clear move above $92,000 could push BTC to $100,000 within a maximum of 10 days.

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