2026 is off to a bullish start, and it’s not just hype.
On the macro side, the outlook for crypto looks solid. Take the Strategy [MSTR] FUD around MSCI exclusion, for instance. Instead of spooking investors, it boosted confidence in DATs, with MSTR up 9.88% YTD so far.
However, this is just the beginning. With crypto regulations, stablecoins, and Bitcoin’s [BTC] Strategic Reserve in play, the macro setup is stacking up. The big question – Will this momentum actually turn into real action?
BTC’s 2025 cycle – Skeptics hold, fundamentals strengthen
The 2025 market cycle left a mixed picture.
While some doubted BTC’s “digital gold” status, others argued that Bitcoin strengthened at a fundamental level. This was largely due to regulations like the GENIUS Act, which, in turn, helped build trust among institutions.
The real headline? Trump signed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in March 2025, pushing the U.S towards being the “crypto capital.” However, with BTC finishing 2025 down -6.3%, it looks like skeptics might still hold some weight.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Consequently, the pressure for “execution” is now building.
Despite all the fundamental groundwork, institutional demand has taken a hit, with Bitcoin ETF outflows and price swings keeping things volatile. From a technical standpoint, even $100k looks like a tough climb right now.
Hence, all eyes are on 2026. The market is watching whether the U.S government will finally start buying Bitcoin for its Strategic Reserve. It’s not guaranteed, but with the macro setup, it’s definitely a possibility.
Strategic reserve and 2025 rally set up 2026 Bitcoin outlook
Even with the Strategic Reserve, BTC didn’t pump, and that wasn’t a fluke.
For context, back in March 2025, the U.S officially established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, designed to hold seized BTC. That means no federal buying has happened yet. So, the market hasn’t seen any real stimulus.
The big question – Will that change sooner than most people expect? This is where Kazakhstan’s recent Bitcoin mining renewal comes into play, showing how macro uncertainty is forcing economies to rethink digital assets.
Source: TradingView (GOLD)
In this context, gold’s massive 2025 rally only reinforced the trend.
Looking at the charts, Gold closed 2025 up 65%, breaking $4.5k for the first time in history, marking one of its most bullish runs ever. Meanwhile, Bitcoin failed to mirror this pattern as investors parked capital in “safe havens.”
That said, that’s where the significance of the 2025 rally comes in
Even though Bitcoin’s price didn’t reflect it, the fundamentals and crypto regulations strengthened its “digital gold” status. This, in turn, makes the odds of the U.S government buying Bitcoin this year more likely.
Final Thoughts
- Despite BTC finishing 2025 down -6.3%, regulations like the GENIUS Act, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and growing institutional trust strengthened Bitcoin’s “digital gold” status.
- Gold rallied by 65% in 2025, while 2026 saw MSTR FUD boost confidence in DATs.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/when-will-the-u-s-government-start-buying-bitcoin-for-its-reserve/
